As we reach the denouement of Brexit with all of its potentially destructive consequences, the WhatUKthinks series of polls that YouGov have mainly been carrying out for The Times show the number of people thinking that the vote to leave the EU was a mistake has reached its highest level ever at 50 per cent. Just 39 per cent still think it was right. If there is a reason to be optimistic that Brexit is a temporary if very expensive blip in our long history this is perhaps it.
There was quite a bit on Twitter about the latest poll:
Latest @YouGov @thetimes poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 39 (-2); wrong 50 (+4). Fwork 23-24.9 (ch since 8-9.9). Record lead for 'wrong' over right'. https://t.co/pTfEFU5Y9x— What UK Thinks: EU (@whatukthinks) September 28, 2020
The 11 per cent gap was said to be a record although it wasn't. We had the same gap in December 2018 at 49-38 per cent but it dropped back again. It remains to be seen what happens in the next few months, but looking at the bigger picture, I think the writing is already on the wall for Brexit.
Switzerland voted last week 63-37 per cent to reverse a 2014 referendum and retain freedom of movement with the EU, a huge sign of support for Brussels and a simple recognition of the economic facts of life. I also noted that somewhere else it was reported that all of Norway's newspapers are now publishing editorials in favour of becoming full members of the EU.
Support across Europe for the EU has grown significantly since the Brexit vote, precisely the opposite effect that Farage and Putin wanted.
Consider also that Scotland and NI voted to remain in the EU and sooner or later, as an inevitable consequence of the Brexit vote they will leave the United Kingdom. Scotland may have done so anyway but it doesn't alter the fact that Scottish support for the EU is strong.
Recent research also shows that the narrow vote in Wales to leave the EU was heavily influenced by English retirees and votes of English people in general living in Wales.
So, my point is that England will eventually find itself isolated and separated from its neighbours, although at the moment there is probably still a majority in England to leave the EU, it must be falling and will probably fall further as the stark reality of what it means to be outside the EU hits home.
I cannot see the EU agreeing a trade deal which is in our favour. Britain will still be subject to EU rules and oversight with the constant risk of tariffs or loss of access by our financial sector to Europe if we try to undercut them. This is a given.
And in my experience, Brexiteers will have an uphill task to make Britain an exporting powerhouse no matter how many employment or environmental laws they trash or how much money they pump into new industries. And to do that while wrestling with a massive debt pile over the next few years will make it all but impossible anyway.
On this basis, I really don't see Brexit lasting for the next five years. Its very foundations were built on delusions and cannot survive long.
The ninth round of talks starts this morning in Brussels but Gove continues to take a hard line on the UKIM bill and yesterday reiterated that the offending clauses will not be removed. Maros Sefcovic, Gove's opposite number in the EU reiterated his threat to begin legal proceedings if the clauses are not taken out by the end of the month - Wednesday!!
We shall see. He did say they will do it at a time of their choosing.
It strikes me the clauses are an empty gesture anyway and will be used later to claim it was the threat that we would break international law that saw Brussels adopt a more 'realistic' tone. In truth it probably has no impact at all except to harden attitudes and increase EU demands for more guarantees and more workable and effective enforcement measures.
