Are we on the verge of a Varadkar moment?

The ninth round of talks ended yesterday with the chief negotiators on each side seeming to disagree what they agree about and news that Johnson and Von der Leyen are to have a conference call later this afternoon. This will either be a Varadkar moment or the temporary ending of the talks, it's hard to say. If I was Frost or Cummings, I would worry about Johnson getting involved since he doesn't understand what's going on around him as he ably demonstrated a couple of times in the last few days.

Every time he's wheeled out in front of the cameras he only makes another gaffe, revealing his ignorance of his own covid 19 rules in the North East last week and yesterday how much money Leeds Hospital Trust would be getting.  I wouldn't trust him to buy a tin of peas from Tesco.

Frost doesn't seem much better with a line in his statement saying he's "concerned that there is very little time now to resolve these issues ahead of the European Council on 15 October". Somebody should have told him that we set the deadline so can hardly complain about how much time is left.

He also said, "On fisheries the gap between us is unfortunately very large and, without further realism and flexibility from the EU, risks being impossible to bridge."

Barnier on the other hand simply restated in summary what was in the political declaration on fishing. He didn't mention the width of the gap at all:

A stable, sustainable and long-term agreement on fisheries, enabling the United Kingdom to further develop its fishing opportunities, while ensuring the sustainable use of resources and protecting the activities of European fishermen and women.

On LPF matters Frost said there had been limited progress but called for the EU need to "move further." Barnier noted a lack of progress on some important topics like the protection of personal data, climate change commitments or carbon pricing "as well as persistent serious divergences on matters of major importance for the European Union."

It seems the tunnel is a long way down the line.

Optimistic noises from Downing Street seem to have fallen silent. Fishing we were told was close to being resolved the other day but now the gap is impossible to bridge. Frost calling for further realism is like a prisoner walking the plank making threats to the 27 crew behind him.  His boss Johnson told the BBC that if Brussels want a trade deal it's "up to the EU".

The best summary comes as usual from Peter Foster at the FT on Twitter:

So. End of another long #brexit trade negotiations week...which ended in more stalemate over fish and LPF/subsidies...but it is subsidies where it's really fundamentally stuck, it seems. And that's important, because the 'state aid' row is really a proxy #Brexit as a whole 1/

— Peter Foster (@pmdfoster) October 2, 2020

He says as far as the Von der Leyen call later today is concerned, "the EU is 'still waiting for the beef', and Johnson can expect to be asked difficult questions. Warm words about wanting a deal unlikely to cut it."  But I suspect warm words is all she will get, Johnson doesn't have anything else.

What would be fascinating to know is which side asked for the Johnson/Von der Leyen virtual meeting. That would tell us a lot. The negotiators will know.

One gets the impression the UK government thinks it's playing a blinder, constantly unsettling and gaslighting the EU with unorthodox approaches and unexpected leaks to the press, giving the impression the administration is indeed insane enough to take the nation over a cliff. The EU seem singularly unimpressed, knowing they are in the stronger position.

Barnier has resisted going in to "the tunnel" and I half expect the purpose of the call from our side is to get VDL to agree to it but I am sure she will act on Barnier's advice, I assume she and he speak daily and she is perfectly well aware of the state of play.  If you can say one thing about the EU27 and the Commission, they have kept a tremendous unity and solidarity throughout the last four years and if the UK think the Commission President is likely to offer any hope or chink of light, they will be very much mistaken.

The only certainty is that we are truly approaching the first staging post of Brexit. It won't end because Brexit is not an event or even a process - it's a status which will be permanent until we rejoin.

Yesterday I unkindly referred to President Trump's contracting of the coronavirus as good news. It was wrong and I apologise. He is now in hospital and at his age, he will be at serious risk. Biden showed how it should be done:

Jill and I send our thoughts to President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump for a swift recovery. We will continue to pray for the health and safety of the president and his family.

— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) October 2, 2020

Let us hope he is elected in November.