You can tell the beads of sweat are starting to appear on the foreheads of UK negotiators when spin doctors in Downing Street keep leaking details of a 'breakthrough' in the trade talks followed by the EU denying any such thing. The latest was apparently a tweet by Sebastian Payne at the FT suggesting progress on the vexed issue of state aid. It was immediately denied by the EU.
Here is Payne's Twitter thread:
Despite the EU launching legal proceedings against the UK over the internal market bill, officials in London are increasingly optimistic a Brexit deal.“We’ve gone from about 30% chance of a deal to the other way around. I think it’s almost certain we’ll enter the tunnel.”— Sebastian Payne (@SebastianEPayne) October 1, 2020
But asked about the Tweets by Reuters, an unnamed EU official - involved in negotiations with Britain - said yesterday afternoon:
"It's UK spin. Unfounded. We're not seeing any sign yet that landing zones are in sight, whether on the level playing field or fish."
There are commentators who suggested this is a strategy whereby we talk up the prospects of a deal only to be 'forced' to walk out when the EU refuse to be reasonable. I don't believe that. It's far more likely to be the government realising it's in a corner and will, sooner or later, make concessions big enough with clear guarantees, that enable negotiators to enter the "tunnel" where we will make even bigger concessions.
There are commentators who suggested this is a strategy whereby we talk up the prospects of a deal only to be 'forced' to walk out when the EU refuse to be reasonable. I don't believe that. It's far more likely to be the government realising it's in a corner and will, sooner or later, make concessions big enough with clear guarantees, that enable negotiators to enter the "tunnel" where we will make even bigger concessions.
One of, if not the main reason they're in such a pickle is the refusal to listen to experts at every point in the Brexit negotiations and to rely on faith and ideology and their own fixed ideas about what will or will not work.
An exchange in the commons yesterday exemplified it all for me:
Remarkable exchange in the Commons just now.@hilarybennmp asks Gove if Brexit IT systems are ready, after the Road Haulage Association said they're not.Gove has a dig at the RHA, says they `haven't been the most constructive partner' - then doesn't answer the question 1/ pic.twitter.com/XnODpNOcxo— Joe Mayes (@Joe_Mayes) October 1, 2020
This is Gove meeting reality for the first time and perhaps now just beginning to regret not listening to experts when he should have. We have all read of meetings the government had with industry where businessmen were briefed beforehand not to be negative - otherwise known as shielding ministers from reality.
Asked by Hilary Benn to 'clarify' if the GVMS or the Smart Freight systems really were "in operation" as he had assured the House a few days ago, Gove accused the Road Haulage Association of not being the most constructive partner. As for the two IT systems, we didn't learn any more.
Richard Burnett of the RHA immediately responded on Twitter:
We have been the most constructive partner to DfT, HMRC and BPDG highlighting issues and gaps continuously in process. We have also suggested many constructive solutions. Mr Gove has chosen to not listen or indeed answer our questions @michaelgove— Richard Burnett (@RHARichardB) October 1, 2020
I expect things to get much more explicit and vociferous as industry begins to realise they are being set up to take the blame for the shortages, disruption and chaos that is bound to happen - unless we agree another implementation period.
Privately, the EU must be thanking their lucky stars we set a deadline and refused to extend the transition period, which will increasingly be seen as the second time we lost control of events, the first being on 29 March 2017. All they have to do now is sit back and wait.
I have always held that at the end of it all nobody will be happy. This applies not just to remainers, but leavers as well and especially Brexiteers. Industry is already expressing anger at the government's inability to listen. Financial companies have shifted 7,500 jobs and $1.6 Trillion out of the UK. Kent residents are up in arms about being surrounded by a de facto border and the building of huge lorry parks with proper planning approvals and consultation.
Those who want to see immigration reduced are seeing it increase - from the rest of the world - and illegal immigration across The Channel is surging with Priti Patel talking about deploying a wave machine to repel them and those that survive being sent to Ascension Island for processing.
When the details of the 'thin' deal are released it will be clear that fishermen will have been let down once again and we will have given up our seat in first class for a ride on the floor of the mail coach.
Brexiteers will be unhappy that it isn't the clean break they thought it would be. We will still be following a lot of EU rules - certainly on financial matters where the EU can withdraw their "equivalence" decision with 30 days notice if we diverge. The City will have a permanent sword of Damocles hanging over it.
I really see no upside at all. Trade agreements with the US and others may well be agreed and hailed as some great panacea but if UK companies can't export enough to the EU with zero paperwork how they will "take advantage" of trade deals which still have mountains of red tape by comparison I really do not know.
Finally, some good news at last. President Trump has coronavirus.
