The entire house of cards that Brexit has become is captured by The Daily Telegraph's headline this morning as the prime minister's 15 October final deadline is upon us: Boris Johnson will delay decision on quitting Brexit trade talks. I think, after all the chest beating and the sabre rattling and the dire warnings issued behind the scenes by Dominic Cummings, this says it all. Johnson is too frightened by the consequences of leaving without a trade deal to carry out his threat. The EU now know it for certain. They called his bluff.
All that needs to happen is the EU27 stick together and wait for the concessions and the white flag.
James Crisp, The Telegraph's Brussels correspondent tweeted a link to the article without comment, perhaps finding it difficult to know quite how to put it to the avid Brexiteers that make up most of the readership. Johnson's umpteenth deadline has come and gone like all the others. He is not dead in a ditch and the Irish sea border, like the Heathrow extension, is going ahead without his dead body anywhere near.
Boris Johnson will delay decision on quitting Brexit trade talks https://t.co/cLUuxnAuf1
— James Crisp (@JamesCrisp6) October 14, 2020
The PM is a paper tiger, the little boy who cried wolf too many times. Brussels understands him better than he does himself.
Of course, Cummings couldn't resist one last petulant threat, presumably to take the edge of the capitulation for the dwindling band of leave voters who still think we are in a strong position.
"The Prime Minister spoke to Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, and Charles Michel, the European Council president on Wednesday night. He warned the EU had to agree to round-the-clock talks or he would carry out his threat, which would mean trading on WTO terms."
You can tell how far apart we are with this bit of Crisp's report:
"David Frost, the UK’s chief negotiator, told Mr Johnson that a deal could still be done by the EU’s deadline of the end of the month but only if negotiators met every day for detailed talks on the basis of legal texts.
"No common legal texts have yet been exchanged and “landing zones” on areas closer to agreement have not been put to paper."
Anyone who listened objectively to the Transport Select Committee meeting yesterday will have noticed the problem. The witnesses who gave evidence, Richard Ballantyne of British Ports, Elizabeth de Jong of Logistics UK and Richard Burnett of the RHA, all expressed varying levels of scepticism about our preparedness for exiting with or without a deal on New Years day next year.
Ballantyne was the least negative, but even he said that ports needed infrastructure and with just 54 working days to go, were in the process of bidding for funds! Bids had to be in by the end of October but the ports themselves, he said, didn't know "100 per cent" what they needed to do - what checks or space was needed - so were bidding blind. Amazing.
Burnett was asked if delays at Dover were now "inevitable" and he was unequivocal - "Yes".
Ms de Jong set out the huge burden of extra paperwork that drivers needed to carry after December. It is daunting. The Smart Freight system will probably be ready but it's nothing more than an expensive check list to remind the driver or haulier what documentation he needs. It is really an A4 sheet with some tick boxes. It has already been renamed "Check an HGV."
Nobody knew when the Goods Vehicle Movement System (GVMS) which issues a crucial movement reference number will be ready. After the freight industry witnesses left, they were followed by Rachel Maclean. Under Secretary at the Department of Transport. Neither she nor the senior civil servant with her could say when it would be available - it wasn't their responsibility see?
Ms Maclean said the department would provide portaloos along the M20, at Manston airfield and at Ashford for the 7000 truck drivers who might be stuck for two days. This is the headline in some newspapers.
No, it was a catalogue of problems with the civil service saying they were confident it would all be ready in time and the freight business not believing them. Ms Maclean wittered on about various things being "stood up" or "rolled out" and all of the questions were very general (How confident are you that the xyz will be ready?) which to my mind shows that none of the members of the committee had "drilled down" into the detail. One lady MP was asking if the GVMS and Check an HGV were the same system!
So, I am even more certain that we will exit with a deal - we will be bound by a lot of legalistic stuff backed up by strong enforcement measures to ensure it is very painful if we transgress and none of it will benefit a single person in this country.
The ERG will eat Johnson for breakfast.
