After four and a half years, we have finally reached that moment of truth, when all the Brexit delusions about how easy it would all be, are destroyed at once. And there is a wonderful symmetry that it comes down to the man who many (including me) think was responsible for it all. Johnson has to decide today how to respond to the EU's throwing down of the gauntlet yesterday. What will he do?
As the PM faces a revolt by Greater Manchester and the expected second wave of coronavirus gathers pace with 19,000 new cases yesterday, a bust up in the difficult trade talks is imminent. Yesterday the European Council comprising leaders of the EU27, adopted a resolution calling on the UK to "make the necessary moves to make an agreement possible."
The resolution threatens a Salzburg moment (when Theresa May thought she was humiliated) for Boris Johnson, coming as it does on 15 October, the date he had set as the final deadline for agreeing a deal. Previously, he had threatened to walk away saying there was no point in negotiating beyond that date. And worse, the EU were not only ignoring the deadline but they were calling on the UK to make all the concessions.
No 10 responded by saying the PM "noted the desirability of a deal" during his pre-summit call with Mrs von der Leyen while he "expressed his disappointment that more progress had not been made over the past two weeks," they added that "The prime minister said that he looked forward to hearing the outcome of the European Council and would reflect before setting out the UK's next steps."
Most commentators think Macron is behind the hard-line stance but it was agreed by all 27 and I think it is indeed time someone called Johnson's bluff.
Frost thought Barnier was being unreasonable when in fact it's the EU 27 who are the hardliners. Simon Fraser, ex permanent secretary at the FCO, tweeted in response to David Frost's post expressing surprise and disappointment:
Not sure what you expected David. These conclusions seem very predictable and reasonably positive to me. But they do once more disprove the false notion that #EU Member States are a softer touch than the #Commission.... https://t.co/LBRb3lWc6h
— Simon Fraser (@SimonFraser00) October 15, 2020
Johnson will have to decide today whether he is going to eat crow or storm out of the talks and lay waste to our devastated economy, the one his chancellor is desperately trying to resuscitate by urging us to avoid a second lockdown. The government is between a hard place and an even harder place.
Either way Johnson is the loser. If he concedes the ERG and his party will be furious and he probably won't survive and if he walks out you can be sure the EU won't come crawling after him. To the biggest health crisis in a century, the government will have added the biggest financial and diplomatic crisis, too.
Don't forget he said recently we would do "very well" under WTO rules.
The only other option open to him is to push the decision into the future - and I expect this is what he will do. A lot of bluster and threats and he will issue his own ultimatum to the EU. But, make no mistake he will soon be eating crow.
It must be blindingly obvious that a government which is at logger heads with it's massive neighbour across the Channel and 27 EU member states, the devolved administrations in Scotland, Wales and NI, its own scientists on how to control a pandemic, the mayor of the third largest conurbation in the country, most of local government, the opposition and even some of its own MPs cannot afford another huge crisis.
The FT have a headline this morning: Johnson ready to force Brexit crisis with no-deal ultimatum for an article which claims:
"Boris Johnson is on Friday expected to try to force Brexit trade talks to a moment of crisis, amid claims in London that Brussels is dragging its feet by insisting that future concessions must come from the British side. David Frost, the prime minister’s chief negotiator, said he was “disappointed” with the outcome of a European Council meeting, in spite of the EU committing to continuing with talks next week.
"British officials claimed the “atmospherics were not good” at the summit and that Mr Johnson would make a statement on Friday, in which he will emphasise talk of a “no deal” end to the transition period on January 1. Downing Street declined to say whether Mr Johnson would pull out of the talks altogether, and his allies said he was in “no hurry”, suggesting he would take time to assess the EU position.
"But Tory MPs have long speculated that the prime minister would engineer some kind of political “crisis” as a prelude to make concessions to secure a deal. Lord Frost referred to Mr Johnson’s statement on September 7 in which he said there needed to be an agreement by the European Council. If none was in place, Mr Johnson said “we should both accept that and move on”. However, the downbeat view in Number 10 will be greeted with raised eyebrows by senior figures in both London and Brussels, where there is a growing belief that a deal is within sight."
Some people on Twitter think Frost's comments about being surprised and disappointed reveal a lack of planning and I think that's true but at the heart of it is the delusion that we are too important, that they need us more than we need them. Frost seems to have swallowed it all.
I stand by me belief that we will not leave without a trade deal and the next few days will be crucial.
