I think what we are seeing is a bit of choreography between the two sides. Yesterday morning Michel Barnier gave a speech to the European Parliament and the UK government then announced they were studying the text. Later they issued a statement with a set of agreed "organising principles" and the talks are now set to restart today in London "intensively" and to continue seven days a week. However, reading the documents reveals, if anything, the two sides are still miles apart and nothing fundamental has changed.
The organising principles are no more than a few agreed rules for how the talks should proceed in the next period of time and it is abundantly, explicitly, obvious that there is as yet no consolidated legal text. The principles include (my emphasis):
This next and final phase of the negotiations will in principle be on the basis of each side’s legal texts while a common approach is found, unless lead negotiators in an individual workstream agree that a different approach is more appropriate.
Lead negotiators in each of the workstreams should move as quickly as possible to a read through of both texts, with a view to identification of areas of convergence, which could be expressed either in a two/three-column table or consolidated texts depending on which tool lead negotiators deem most appropriate.
It goes on to say a small "joint secretariat" will be established to hold a master consolidated text so we know that such a document does not even exist now. Let us be clear, the legal texts can only come after an agreement in principle and in the key areas we still do not have that. And that text is going to take some time to produce.
While Barnier and the EU have appeared to give ground and backed off their demand that the UK needs to compromise, his speech yesterday made it clear the EU's red lines remain as they were. These are the key sections (again my emphasis):
The requirement for a true level playing field framework will remain a fundamental requirement of the Union, as recalled by the European Council. We have noted with interest in the last few days that the British are ready to work on: fundamental principles for a specific state aid control regime in the future agreement, which would go beyond that provided for in the agreements existing free trade standards, as well as non-regression standards, with real guarantees of national implementation, and a dispute settlement mechanism.
But these intentions have yet to be reflected in the negotiations. It is also necessary that each party adopts unilateral measures in response to risks of distortion of competition.
Similarly, the governance of our future agreement is a key to our common success. This is the structure of our agreement, which must be comprehensive. But also a binding dispute settlement mechanism, with an effective sanctions system - this mechanism that can be used by both parties. Maroš Šefčovič has just recalled the risk that the Internal Market Bill causes on the Withdrawal Agreement. That is why we must be more vigilant.
Neither side is going to walk away. UK-EU trade is worth about a trillion pounds, when all European economies are struggling mightily with huge deficits and growing mountains of debt. But the UK is still the most vulnerable. It is a fraction of the EU and has the deepest recession and will be by far the worst affected.
So, work begins again after a brief hiatus but it doesn't mean anything has changed. I do think we can see that the UK government intends to sell British fishermen out once again. They have held back on discussing fish but now it must be on the table - to be sold as expensively as possible.
David Henig has a good explanatory piece which you might want to read HERE. Henig says:
"What we know for sure is that the UK government had the opportunity to end talks and claim the EU were at fault for behaving intolerably, and chose not to do so. This then is not a government that is particularly attracted to life without an EU trade deal, whatever they may say otherwise. Clearly the same applies to the EU side to a degree, certainly the suggestion last week at Council that talks could proceed along the same lines as before was quickly replaced by suggestions of intensification. But the EU side were never likely to walk away, this rarely being the EU approach to third country talks."
Where the UK got what might be seen as a "win" is in the EU intensifying the talks - a key UK demand. But this again only shows (the EU) how keen we are to reach a deal.
So, I am still convinced more than ever there will be a deal.
