On page 19 it says:
"In the event of No Deal, the UK would lose regulatory alignment with the EU overnight, which would lead to immediate queues at the border with lorries being stopped and checked to see whether they comply with technical barriers to trade, such as UK or EU standards or labelling"
Anyone who has kept up with the debate over the last four years would surely know we do not "lose regulatory alignment" with the EU and certainly not "overnight." And the clear implication is that it is this which will cause the queues. More than that, the first six words imply this will ONLY happen in the event of a no deal exit. This is all flat wrong.
And then:
"A leaked ‘reasonable worst case scenario’ from the Government released in September suggested there could be queues of 7,000 lorries at Dover on 1st January29, as border agents are under-equipped to deal with checking every lorry coming in the UK from the EU. Visas and driver permits for lorry drivers, customs and tariff checks for goods, and animal and food safety checks will be needed. Each of these checks is the responsibility of a different Government department, each with its own IT monitoring system, making the overarching system rather complex."
This has been written by someone with a very confused understanding of Brexit. The 7,000 truck queue is for outgoing trucks carrying exports to the EU. This is caused by the extra paperwork which will come in whether or not we get a deal. The UK government has already said the full range of checks on imports will be phased in and at the start of 2021 imports will be more or less waived through.
In practice, I don't thing the problems will be that severe because the flow of goods being exported will fall dramatically as companies struggle with getting customs agents to complete the forms - as even companies like Heinz and Tesla found this week. Export figures to the EU for Q1 next year will be absolutely shocking. This will be the first official recognition of the impact of Brexit in figures.
Best for Britain also claims (page 9) that:
"Operation Brock is a package of measures designed to prepare Kent to avoid massive congestion around Folkestone, in the event of a No Deal Brexit . Part of the eastbound M20 – the main artery to Dover and the Eurotunnel at nearby Folkestone – will be closed to normal traffic and made exclusively available to lorries.4 However, this plan, and preparations of the Channel border, have been heavily criticised by the haulage industry."
Again, the clear message is that a deal will avoid the need to use Operation Brock. But this will probably be needed whether we get a deal or not.
Others claim that a no deal Brexit poses a threat to the Good Friday Agreement again, in the event of a no deal Brexit. But the Withdrawal Agreement is explicitly designed to be effective whether we get a deal or not. Any risk to the GFA comes from failing to follow or implement the WA not whether or not we we get a deal.
I honestly think people are underplaying the problems of introducing border controls, the kind we would have in place deal or no deal, and doing it overnight, by a good margin. But if opponents don't understand it I suspect a lot of smaller SMEs won't either. Many of them may well think they do and tell researchers they are prepared but in the event discover too late that they have been too optimistic.
On another issue, someone on Twitter mentioned the problem of trucks themselves and obtaining spare parts. We have no HGV manufacturer in the UK nowadays, they are all foreign made, the vast majority in the EU. If a truck breaks down and the local dealer doesn't have the spare part, it is flown in overnight and fitted - in about 14 hours according to the tweeter (who I can't find this morning).
But after January, apart from all the extra paperwork, that part may get caught on a truck with something that the customs authorities are interested in and it's stopped in Kent for inspection. It may be stuck there for hours or even days. If it comes by air it may get lost in the vast customs sheds at airports. There is scope for all sorts of problems.
The spares man at the Italian company I worked for until retirement once told me that whenever customs are involved they have problems "99 per cent of the time."
And, in the end-of-line packaging field I am familiar with, the great majority of machines are also from Europe and British users are notoriously tight when it comes to holding spare parts. They are used to ordering a part before (say) 2 pm and having it arrive the following morning by DHL or TNT or FedEx. All that will disappear on 1 January. I wonder how many have thought about it?
It will not help the UK's terrible productivity record to have expensive machines or trucks standing idle for want of a part. It's another Brexit dividend.
