Barry Deas of the National Federation of Fishermen's Organisation was on The Today programme just before seven o'clock this morning talking about a proposal to get a three year transition period leading into a new system based on Norway's zonal attachment scheme to agree quotas and quota shares. Whether this results in any improvement in Britain's coastal communities remains to be seen since much of our existing quotas are already owned by European ships and that is unlikely to change.
Mr Deas was confident our negotiators wouldn't betray the industry but if I was him I wouldn't be so sure. I fear expectations have been raised well beyond what is possible.
Reuters carried reported comments from the EU's prospective financial services commissioner. Mairead McGuinness, said from January there would be "significant changes in financial services between Britain and the EU, regardless of whether UK-EU talks that continue this week reach on a free trade agreement."
The huge financial services sector will depend on a system known as "equivalence" after January, where the EU determines unilaterally whether they see our regulation as equivalent but McGuinness said any equivalence would come with strict conditions. Equivalence can also be removed with 30 days notice.
"Should equivalence be granted in a particular area, it will need to be accompanied by [..] commitments not to deviate from the EU framework for the period covered by the equivalence decision," she said.
EU member states will demand a high price for granting equivalence and France in particular is never going to allow The City of London to have continued access to European markets more or less as the do now, while fishing communities in France lose the access to our waters that they have now. Politically it is impossible for Macron I think.
The sheer relative sizes of the two industries should be a clue for Mr Deas about where the negotiations are headed.
In another development, yesterday the Guardian reported that the UK tabled five new proposals:
"The UK has submitted five new draft negotiating documents containing legal texts on fisheries, the “level playing field”, law enforcement and judicial cooperation, civil nuclear cooperation and social security coordination. An EU official said: “We can confirm that we received additional documents from the UK. We are studying them.”
Note it is not the EU hurriedly submitting draft documents at the last minute. We are doing all the work and this should tell us everything about the relative position of each side.
On state aid, we have shot ourselves in the foot once again by agreeing tighter state aid rules with Japan than we were proposing for the EU. As was always obvious the UK-Japan deal has become the new basis, but it will not have escaped Brussels' notice that Japan is much further away than the UK is and naturally state subsidies here will have much more impact on them. The Guardian:
According to Brussels sources, the UK’s paper on state aid, the most contentious of the outstanding issues, offered to lay out a series of “principles” on controlling domestic subsidies.
The EU said the paper offered hope that the UK would build on provisions in the recently signed UK-Japan deal. The trade deal with Tokyo prevents either side from indefinitely guaranteeing the debts of struggling companies or providing open-ended bailouts without approved restructuring plans.
But the paper failed to offer appropriate “governance” proposals that would allow Brussels to keep the UK to its pledges, EU sources said. The EU wanted to ensure that any commitments were seen through and that in the event of a breach, parts of the trade deal could be immediately suspended.
EU member states will demand a high price for granting equivalence and France in particular is never going to allow The City of London to have continued access to European markets more or less as the do now, while fishing communities in France lose the access to our waters that they have now. Politically it is impossible for Macron I think.
The sheer relative sizes of the two industries should be a clue for Mr Deas about where the negotiations are headed.
In another development, yesterday the Guardian reported that the UK tabled five new proposals:
"The UK has submitted five new draft negotiating documents containing legal texts on fisheries, the “level playing field”, law enforcement and judicial cooperation, civil nuclear cooperation and social security coordination. An EU official said: “We can confirm that we received additional documents from the UK. We are studying them.”
Note it is not the EU hurriedly submitting draft documents at the last minute. We are doing all the work and this should tell us everything about the relative position of each side.
On state aid, we have shot ourselves in the foot once again by agreeing tighter state aid rules with Japan than we were proposing for the EU. As was always obvious the UK-Japan deal has become the new basis, but it will not have escaped Brussels' notice that Japan is much further away than the UK is and naturally state subsidies here will have much more impact on them. The Guardian:
According to Brussels sources, the UK’s paper on state aid, the most contentious of the outstanding issues, offered to lay out a series of “principles” on controlling domestic subsidies.
The EU said the paper offered hope that the UK would build on provisions in the recently signed UK-Japan deal. The trade deal with Tokyo prevents either side from indefinitely guaranteeing the debts of struggling companies or providing open-ended bailouts without approved restructuring plans.
But the paper failed to offer appropriate “governance” proposals that would allow Brussels to keep the UK to its pledges, EU sources said. The EU wanted to ensure that any commitments were seen through and that in the event of a breach, parts of the trade deal could be immediately suspended.
The ticking clock is having much more of an effect on the UK than it is on the EU, who are waiting arms folded and foot tapping as we rush around developing a state aid regime at the last minute. Insane isn't it?
The Independent report comments made by Paul Everitt, Chief Executive of the UK aviation trade body ADS, who told Hilary Benn's Select Committee that trade will be a “day-to day struggle” after Brexit is completed.
The committee heard about massive extra costs, a mountain of red tape, shrinking investment and chemicals “disappearing” from the UK market, from January.
Some medicines may not reach Northern Ireland – if, as feared, extra tests will be required – although it was “very important that patients don’t panic”, it was told.
Does it sound like the government will opt for a no deal outcome? If they were relaxed about it or thought, as Johnson said, that a no deal exit would be "a very good outcome" would our negotiators be rushing around like headless chickens throwing in concessions in order to get into the so-called "tunnel" - the final negotiations where a news blackout applies while the real horse trading takes place.
The extremists who have been calling for a 'clean' break should start to worry.
The Independent report comments made by Paul Everitt, Chief Executive of the UK aviation trade body ADS, who told Hilary Benn's Select Committee that trade will be a “day-to day struggle” after Brexit is completed.
The committee heard about massive extra costs, a mountain of red tape, shrinking investment and chemicals “disappearing” from the UK market, from January.
Some medicines may not reach Northern Ireland – if, as feared, extra tests will be required – although it was “very important that patients don’t panic”, it was told.
Does it sound like the government will opt for a no deal outcome? If they were relaxed about it or thought, as Johnson said, that a no deal exit would be "a very good outcome" would our negotiators be rushing around like headless chickens throwing in concessions in order to get into the so-called "tunnel" - the final negotiations where a news blackout applies while the real horse trading takes place.
The extremists who have been calling for a 'clean' break should start to worry.
