Sunday 18 October 2020

The impossible dream is dying

We are surely now beginning to see how the Brexit dream will be broken against a wall of reality. To avoid a major negative impact (as opposed to a minor one, there is no way it will be successful) Brexit needs a trade deal with the EU, but the one on offer which might just alleviate some of the worst effects of it, is for many Brexiteers not Brexit. But the government will eventually be forced to accept it and then watch Brexit die from a thousand cuts over the next few years as they squabble among themselves to shift the blame to others. 

It will be the fault of the EU, saboteurs in the civil service or the judiciary or secret remainers who thwarted it all. Rest assured they will absolve themselves of any responsibility for breaking the UK and turning the clock back to the early 1970s.

The forces ranged against Johnson and the psychopath Cummings are looking ever more formidable while downing Street appears to be increasingly besieged.

This weekend, the CBI has organised a joint letter signed by the 71 heads of Britain's main trade organisations, representing 190,000 businesses and seven million workers, calling on the government and the EU to agree a deal. We know the vast majority want to remain in the EU's regulatory system.

In the USA, with barely two weeks to the election, Biden has an 11 point lead and early voting either in person or by mail is up by an incredible 1,700 per cent. Over 24 million Americans have already cast a vote. The US electoral college system is complicated so it doesn't necessarily mean Trump will lose, but it looks pretty certain now that the orange nutjob will be gone in January after what must be the most chaotic presidency ever, anywhere - perhaps Yeltsin excepted.

Biden has Irish roots and will put pressure on Johnson to implement the NI protocol and abide by the agreement he has signed. This will infuriate Unionists. Biden will also switch his attention to getting a trade deal with the EU.

The government is already in a confrontation with the EU over its demands, many of which the EU are I think prepared to concede, but only under the condition we agree to the level playing field, governance and a balanced deal on fish.  The EU will never move on these issues.

The terrible backdrop to all of this is the huge rise in cases of coronavirus across the UK. The numbers are still on an upward curve and will not fall for weeks. There is no sign that the three tiered approach is having any effect at all. Areas where restrictions have been in place for months are still seeing increases in cases. Hospital admissions are also increasing at an alarming rate.

Johnson is at loggerheads with the mayor of Greater Manchester as well as other local authorities, many of whom are exasperated by his handling of the pandemic. Some major unitary authorities are staring at having to declare themselves bankrupt in the next few weeks. They all complain of a lack of consultation and support.

The economy is struggling with a hugely disappointing rebound after Q2's record breaking 20% drop in GDP. Growth is much less than was hoped for and the credit rating agency Moody's has downgraded Britain's debt rating over concerns about coronavirus and Brexit. We are living through a dangerous moment with the deepest recession on record and a financial crisis cannot be ruled out.

Polls show people have lost faith in Johnson and health secretary Matt Hancock. They also show that for a long time, people have believed Brexit was a mistake. The number of people who still think it's right is consistently below 40 per cent now.  Starmer's approval rating also continues to grow.

The house of lords is dealing with the UKIM bill and are almost certain to reject the clauses that expressly break the WA and international law. This will set the lord's against the government.

Last week polling also showed 58 per cent of Scots were in favour of independence, the highest ever. They are also far more impressed with Nicola Sturgeon's handling of the pandemic. She looks assured, calm, strong and a real leader in contrast to the disorganised shambling hulk Johnson. Next year's Holyrood elections will give the SNP a boost as well as a mandate to hold another referendum which Johnson will find hard to resist. He has been a gift to the SNP and will be seen by historians to be THE number one cause of the UK's break up.

Against all of this you can see why I think Johnson is looking besieged. In fact I do not believe he will survive much longer.

His problem is that he made a lot of reckless promises in 2016 none of which are deliverable and yet Brexit must go ahead, or at least an extremely unpalatable version of it. He must choose between vassaldom or impoverishment for it must be one or the other. It cannot be neither.

Brexit is literally the impossible dream.