Saturday, 17 October 2020

Nothing has changed

As anticipated, Johnson put off making a decision with his statement yesterday and according to the BBC, "refused to be drawn" on the question of whether or not he was ending the trade talks. Afterwards, I think realising it looked weak, Cummings briefed the press that the talks were "over."  After that Lord Frost apparently called Barnier to tell him not to bother coming next week unless he was prepared to change his position - although I note most reports are just saying Frost said don't come.

Yet, despite all that, the two chief negotiators are still set to talk next week and Commission president Ursula von der Leyen tweeted:

So, only the atmospherics have changed, in truth nothing else has - as noted by Dave Scullion, a confirmed Brexiteer, in The Critic magazine.  Indeed it is hard to see how the UK could walk away since Johnson is mired in so many crises at the moment it's hard to see over the top of them to a time when Downing Street won't look under siege.

George Parker at the FT was able to ask a question at the coronavirus news conference a bit later and he put it to the PM that the car industry and upland farmers who sell lamb and beef will suffer with tariffs - on meat it will be between 40 and 100%. He asked if those industries were expendable for Brexit?

Johnson brushed it aside saying he thought we could "prosper mightily" under an Australian deal if we have to and would do "very well indeed." If he thinks raising prices by 40-100% is a good thing one wonders why he doesn't increase taxes by that sort of level.

Someone in government must realise the Tory party is not going to be in power for ever. Given the hit a no deal exit would deliver to the economy and the clear wish of a majority of British people to get a deal, the Tories may not last until 2024. Leaving on WTO terms will wreak massive damage on several key sectors but it will only last until a new government comes in and negotiates the sort of deal the Conservatives reject at the moment. No deal cannot be a long-term solution.

We now wait a few days to see how the EU27 react. Barnier has no flexibility on his mandate and if Johnson was pinning hopes on EU leaders softening their position he must have been disappointed on Thursday - the day he hoped to have an outline deal ready. 

If anything, the leaders are much harder than Barnier - at least in public and Johnson doesn't now have the advantage of sitting among them and chatting at the margins to find solutions and build alliances. All he has is the ever belligerent, cantankerous, confrontational madman Cummings in whom he has a surprising amount of faith although he's never actually achieved anything apart from the referendum, which he won mainly by lies and manipulation.

All of this diplomacy by other means is an attempt to deflect or avoid blame for a breakdown of the talks, and of course that's important to both sides. But the question Johnson and Cummings should be asking themselves is in the end is it enough to force the EU into changing their mandate and their red lines on governance and the LPF?  I can't see that it is. The EU is a long term project which the original six have worked on for over sixty years already. Are they likely to sacrifice the single market to avoid some short term unpopularity in a former member state?  I doubt it. 

 David Henig is always worth listening to on Twitter and he has commented on Johnson's letter to MPs - which as far as I can see is the statement he read out and was published later on the gov.uk website. Henig says its confused, exaggerated and contradictory which means I assume he wrote it himself. 

I assume also this means he doesn't trust the civil service to lie on his behalf, or they refused perhaps. Henig's thread is well worth taking a minute or two to read.

The MP Andrew Bridgen appeared on Newsnight last night (they can't get a minister for love nor money) and seemed to me to wholly ignorant of many issues, thinking we've got an aviation agreement with the EU already settled for example, when we haven't, as Matt Hancock confirmed last week. He also talked about the EU not treating us as a sovereign nation and Thomas Cole tweeted what I thought was the best comment:

Over at RTE Tony Connelly claims the EU have a new suggestion on fishing. The EU are apparently looking at linking fish to energy - withholding an agreement on Britain's membership of the EU single energy market until they have an agreement on fish.  Talks on energy were more or less complete but now Barnier has halted them.  Energy is worth five times as much as fish - look out fishermen.

I believe we sell some energy to France and Belgium when we have a surplus but (again I am not certain on this) I think this is based on costs. If you have a surplus, selling it cheap is better than wasting it and the flow from the UK to Europe is based on price. But we have a shortfall in energy supply and overall we need  to get about 6 per cent of our energy requirements from the EU. So, it may be a smart move by Barnier.

Next, Reuters report that the credit ratings agency Moody's have downgraded the UK again and we are now level with Belgium and the Czech republic on Aa3 - whatever that is?  I don't think its a good thing for interest rates on our massive borrowing.

And this morning it is being reported that Jennifer Arcuri has admitted to having an affair with Boris Johnson which I think everyone knew at the time but it is just another aspect of Johnson's chaotic, amoral lifestyle that will eventually bring him down.

What a mess it all is.

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