So, finally, with 647 days to go and after the utterly crushing election where Mrs May brilliantly exchanged a majority government for a minority one, negotiations get underway in Brussels today. The EU have helpfully published the agenda (HERE). We have had nothing at all from the British side. No plan, no aims, no key demands. Nothing, except constant hints and press leaks by various ministers that either nothing has changed or that we need to pursue a softer Brexit. In other words we are in a state closely resembling chaos.
Reuters describe it as Britain hurtling into the unknown (HERE) while The Independent (HERE) publish a poll suggesting support for Brexit is waning with 53% now wanting a second referendum. The EU are still in the dark, except for the Article 50 letter and the white paper. Both of these seem to say we want to leave the single market but keep everything that we had as if we were still members. The EU have ruled this out. We also want trade and withdrawal negotiations to be carried out simultaneously. The EU have also ruled this out.
On the substantive issues that the EU have set out in their position papers: the so called Brexit bill and the rights of citizens afterwards, we have said nothing. I presume we want to keep this as a surprise so the EU negotiators have to take time to study our response - assuming we actually have one prepared and are not just winging it.
We seem to be saying this morning that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, suggesting that the outline of a trade deal must be agreed before we accept the bill. They say the withdrawal agreement must take account of our future relationship. I am not convinced the EU will accept this argument firstly because it would weaken their position.
Secondly, the EU will I believe say they already know the future relationship. They will say, you have already told us you want to withdraw from the single market and the customs union. The British often think that what is written down is somehow not to be taken too seriously. Knowing the way most Europeans work, the EU negotiators will have gone through Mrs May's Article 50 letter, the Brexit white paper and the Conservative manifesto in great detail and will think this represents our firm position, not some negotiating ploy.
They will also note we want a free trade deal and no doubt they will accept this is possible but will take years to prepare. There will have to be a transitional period where we will have to continue under EU rules including budget payments and ECJ jurisdiction. This is going to be hard to swallow for Brexiteers and the hysterical right wing press. The press conference scheduled for this evening will be interesting but will probably say nothing beyond everything is going well.
It was announced at the weekend (HERE) that the next parliamentary session would last two years to give MPs time to tackle the Great Repeal Bill and other changes to the law to allow us to leave the EU smoothly. Is this an admission that Brexit is going to take longer, be more difficult and more painful that we have been told? I hope so.
It was announced at the weekend (HERE) that the next parliamentary session would last two years to give MPs time to tackle the Great Repeal Bill and other changes to the law to allow us to leave the EU smoothly. Is this an admission that Brexit is going to take longer, be more difficult and more painful that we have been told? I hope so.
