The Telegraph has an article this morning (HERE) about increasing growth in the EU and particularly in the Eastern European nations like Poland. The writer, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, says this is probably going to put the brakes on immigration to the UK whatever happens and Mrs May's plan to sacrifice the economy to control migration is therefore completely out of date and misguided. It is trying to address a problem which will not exist shortly.
Poland is apparently growing at 4% a year and it is becoming increasingly difficult to recruit skilled people. Immigrants are returning at record levels. Incomes are at their highest relative to Western Europe since the 1500s and to fill vacancies the Polish government has had to issue 1.3 million temporary visas to Ukrainian workers.
Wages increased in Hungary by 15% last year. The minimum wage will increase by 20% this year and 12% next year. In Romania civil servants just won a 25% pay increase and Doctors 20%. Growth here is at an astonishing 5% a year. Coupled with the fall in Sterling it means wage differentials are disappearing fast.
The article warns not only that this will solve the immigration issue it will make it more and more difficult to recruit the workers needed in the British economy. Today it is being suggested we face a skills shortage (HERE) in the UK with 4 million too few high skilled people by 2024 and 6 million too many unskilled workers.
It looks like we are shooting ourselves in the foot.
