Mrs May gave parliament an update on the EU talks yesterday (HERE). It was I think more aimed at the leaders of the EU 27 rather than parliamentarians and was, like the Florence speech, an attempt to get trade talks going before the phase 1 separation issues have made "sufficient progress". This update was trailed as the "ball is in your court" message and that no more concessions can be expected from the UK.
It also contained an implicit threat, a completely empty one, that we are making preparations for a no deal exit. Her tone was one of - we are going to do something really bad and it will all be your fault if anybody gets hurt. The EU will no doubt see that we are pointing the gun at our own head. The Daily Telegraph lapped it up and thinks we have a strong hand (HERE) and even thinks her statement will "pile pressure" on Brussels (HERE) who responded by saying the ball is "entirely" in our court (HERE) and the sequencing of the talks will remain the same. So much for pressure!
She is still imagining a trade deal setting out a "deep and special partnership" to be agreed by March 2019 although she admits it may not be finally settled until the last minute. Hence the need for an implementation period (note she still refuses to use the word transition) of around two years. I know of no one outside government circles and the right wing jingoistic press who believes what she is suggesting is remotely possible.
A day or so before, John Bruton, the former Irish taoiseach had been addressing members of the IOD in Brussels. A report on what he said is HERE. Unlike May, Davis, Johnson, Fox and others of the mad Brexit brigade, he thinks two years is nowhere near enough to negotiate a deal. In his opinion we will need six years and urges the government to secure an extension to the Article 50 period as soon as possible.
Mr Bruton thinks the government, opposition and people are hopelessly divided on Brexit and he's absolutely right. He also sees problems negotiating a transition period since this would require the approval of all 27 EU members and hence risks the UK falling out without a deal.
He does not think the UK government understands the complexities of Brexit and far from Boris Johnson wanting an exit as soon as possible he thinks we need to agree more negotiating time as quickly as possible. Unfortunately, he notes, rather presciently given Mrs May's statement yesterday, there is no sign that the UK government even accepts that time is an issue - because it's mind is on other things.
Think about all this. Mrs May has expressly ruled out a CETA style free trade agreement and the EEA option. She wants something else although Brussels has said it will not mix the models, so they may take some persuading even to start talking about such an option. But assume they come round to our way of thinking. CETA took seven years but we want far more access and flexibility than CETA provides, in fact we want what we've got now less the budget contributions, freedom of movement and the ECJ. So, Mrs May's ideas will take years to agree.
But more than that, she also wants a bespoke transition period (or implementation period in Mayspeak) and this also will have to be negotiated at the same time. She has conceded the ECJ will have some role during the transition and this is already causing trouble among the Brexiteers (HERE) thus confirming what Mr Bruton has said about divisions. Why she believes the EU will have the slightest interest in negotiating a special transition period I have no idea. They will, I am sure, say why not remain in the EU - extend the Article 50 deadline - until you are ready to leave? Anything other than this will just take up a lot of valuable time.
No wonder the EU negotiators are frustrated.
