Monday, 16 October 2017

POLLING - MORE

According to The Independent (HERE) the YouGov poll for The Times, the latest in the WhatUKthinks series (HERE), has 7% of leave voters now believing they made the wrong decision. And another 7% are not sure if they did or not which I assume means they are wavering and will probably change their view as the problems of Brexit mount and become clear.

It's worth remembering that 17,410,742 people voted leave which means 1,218,751 (7%) have already changed their mind and if they joined the 16,144,244 who voted to remain, in any second referendum, which one assumes they might well do, there would be a reversal of the result and a majority for remain of 1,171,000 or 51.75% to 48.25%

And if in the coming months the 7% who are wavering realise the damage to Britain's economy and standing which Brexit will cause and change their minds too, we would have a 55.3% -  44.6% majority or remain - a landslide!

Brexit is becoming less likely by the week.

Update: Peter Kellner, the YouGov founder has written a piece for Prospect magazine (HERE) which backs up what I have been saying but goes into much more detail. He concludes there is a shift but to make politicians sit up and rethink it will need to go further - I think it will.