Brexit has always had the air of something slightly ridiculous, even the name is a bit naff, but it is now descending into farce, even anarchy. There never was a single over-arching vision of where we wanted to be nor a plan to get us there. Sixteen months after the vote and we are still lacking both.
The nation is divided and the two main political parties are divided. Negotiations are underway but without a clear sense of direction and they are now “deadlocked” according the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier. We can’t even agree on the first three separation issues and although we seem to be inching towards a settlement on citizen’s rights, on the Irish border and money we are miles apart. This after seven months out of the two year period we get under Article 50. Now Mrs May is taking David Davis , who has made such a mess of the negotiations, like a naughty schoolboy to Brussels cap in hand.
The clueless Brexiteers in the Tory party are calling for the Chancellor to be fired because he isn’t sufficiently enthusiastic about trashing the economy. The DUP are threatening to vote with the opposition if the government tries to take us out of the single market. Rebel MPs have tabled 300 amendments and 54 new clauses to the withdrawal bill, delaying it’s move to the committee stage.
Brexiteers like Dominic Cummings, the Vote Leave Campaign Director, are attacking their own side for incompetence. DEXEU, the department charged with negotiating our exit is losing staff at an alarming rate. British airline pilots and some airlines like Ryanair say leaving without a deal will mean planes unable to fly after Brexit day. Chris Grayling, the Transport Secretary says this won’t happen - but does not seem certain about it.
The port of Dover pay for a rolling advert at the Tory party conference claiming there will be massive queues and disruption to EU trade unless we reach an agreement but no one takes any notice. Sainsbury’s warn of empty shelves if we go for a hard Brexit. There is a scramble in government and at the Nuclear Inspection Agency to get something set up by March 2019 to replace EURATOM otherwise the movement of nuclear materials and waste will cease.
There are any number of Brexiteers calling for the government to just walk away from the negotiations in Brussels because we really have the upper hand. As if somehow we are larger and richer than the EU 27 and can do as we like. There is not the slightest recognition of the weakness in our position. Industry and finance are pleading with government to get an early and legally solid transition period to take us beyond March 2019. EU negotiators hear this and know they have the upper hand because only the European Council can agree to a transition deal.
And although government ministers frequently say we will be out of the EU and the ECJ after March 2019 with freedom of movement ended and with the right to negotiate and implement new trade deals, it is obvious that price of an extension to the two year period will be continued following of the union acquis – all of it. We will have given up voting rights and have no MEPs in the EU parliament but otherwise we will still be a member.
The Office for Budget Responsibility announces they have been far too optimistic in the past about rising productivity which instead of the 2% they have been assuming regularly, we have actually averaged just 0.2%. This has profound implications for the coming budget where the chancellor will have less money to cushion the impact of Brexit. But never mind, Mr Hammond is planning a “big, bold budget”, where borrowing is increased, councils are allowed to borrow more for housing and restrictions on building within green belt will be relaxed. This sounds like a Labour chancellor. What the markets will make of it remains to be seen.
Our near £2 trillion debt, which costs more to service than we pay for defence, and is still rising steadily will increase at an even faster pace amid all the looming uncertainty of Brexit. We are living in dangerous times. In 2016 David Davis was dismissive of the Eurozone where government debt was over 90% of GDP and in this year’s election the Tories attacked Labour for thinking there was a magic money tree. This was in connection with cutting tuition fees and cancelling student debt. We now learn the government itself are looking at ways of doing both! There really is a magic money tree apparently as we hike our own debt to well over 90% of GDP.
Meanwhile, as a backdrop to all this, public opinion is definitely changing with a shift that indicates to me people are beginning to see the difficulties piling up. Whether they will think it was Brexit that caused the government to loosen the purse strings and is therefore a good thing or not remains to be seen. It will certainly be a reinforcing of Jeremy Corbyn’s position that spending while interest rates are low is prudent. Never mind that we are doing it as rates are about to rise!
