The cabinet are all off to Chequers today to make a decision about what our future relationship with Europe is going to be - or more properly what we will ask the EU for. The two things will be vastly different. This is the central issue that has bedevilled the Conservative party for thirty years and it comes down to the 59th minute of the eleventh hour to try and make a decision. I'll make a forecast - they will not be able to do it.
I am not saying after the meeting there will not be some kind of statement as if unity has broken out but if Mrs May avoids resignations this will be a minor triumph, but asking Brexiteers in cabinet to forget thirty years of prejudice in one afternoon is not really feasible. It's crunch or fudge I think.
One former minister described the situation as this: "If everyone is happy it's a fudge. If anything's genuinely decided someone has to be unhappy", according to Laura Kuenssberg (HERE)
One of the options according to the BBC this morning is a sector by sector approach where we comply with EU laws, directives and regulations where it suits us and we diverge in other areas. This rather unfortunately clashed with the EU last night releasing a series of slides setting out their position on "Regulatory Issues" - you can see them all HERE.
Slide 4 is this:
- A third country cannot have the same rights and benefits as a member of the Union, as it does not live up to the same obligations.
- A balance of rights and obligations.
- Preserve integrity and proper functioning of the Single Market.
- Preserving the integrity of the Single Market excludes sector-by-sector participation.
- Access to the Single Market requires acceptance of all four freedoms.
- Avoid upsetting existing relations with third countries.
- Ensure a level-playing field.
- Should safeguard financial stability in the Union and respect its regulatory and supervisory regime and standards.
- Preserve Union decision-making autonomy and the role of the CJEU.
But we'll see what happens later today.
