We are exactly half way along the Article 50 road so I think it's a good time to look at how things are going. Of course, March 29th 2019 only marks the symbolic or technical leaving of the EU. We will still be members as far as anyone in this country is concerned, even down to acknowledging jurisdiction of the ECJ. The actual half way point won't occur until some time in November this year.
I don't believe I am saying anything contentious when I say the negotiations are not going well. Politico give a nice summary HERE and think what we're going through is a managed surrender.
Because of the government's lack of candour or indeed realism, we are still in the realms of speculation about where we're actually headed. Both sides are still in campaign mode in truth. Although the referendum produced a result it was not decisive, whatever Brexiteers might say, and all sides have simply continued the campaign. Not about whether we should leave but about how and where to.
The polls are slowly changing, as was forecast and anticipated. I don't think anybody is claiming a greater majority for Brexit now and probably there is no majority at all or even a small majority against. There is still much uncertainty, although negotiations started this week on the Irish border problem with a warning that a workable solution needs to be found by June this year. According to Politico (HERE) the UK government is leaning towards the so-called "magical solution" so it remains to be seen how that will turn out.
I do wonder what will happen when the speculation and campaigning has to end and we begin to engage with the reality of whatever it is that Brexit actually means. This will be the story of the second half.
Let's be honest, nobody knows how Brexit will end. This in itself should be shocking. The fate of the nation is in the balance. Brexiteers think it will all be an unalloyed success. Remainers like us think the opposite, but in truth nobody knows. Brexit was a spin of the roulette wheel. But, and again I don't think I am being contentious, there is a growing weight of evidence that we are probably going to lose the bet. We have staked a lot on a few numbers. The odds are against us.
But for the moment, the wheel is still spinning. How much we might win or lose is unknown. The outcome of Brexit will be on a spectrum from triumph to disaster.
I tend to think it is unlikely to be at the extremes, although it's not impossible. Brexit is not Armageddon. We are not going to be eating grass and living in caves. There is not going to be a big bang where the smoke clears and an obvious catastrophe has occurred. It will be a series of minor events that may take quite a long time to unfold.
And probably because I am biased, I cannot see how Brexit will ever put us on the successful side of the spectrum. Again, I acknowledge I might be wrong, but with all of the expert opinion on our side, plus the common sense that putting barriers between yourself and your biggest suppliers and customers cannot be a good thing and my own experience with European companies, I think it is almost certain we will end up on the disaster side. The questions then are: exactly how far along the disaster side Brexit will take us and how will Brexiteers and leave voters react to it?
We are already seeing a slowing of the economy and the OBR forecast this to be the new normal until at least the mid 2020s. The problem will be in knowing at which point people begin to connect the dots as I am certain they will eventually. The more gradual the decline, the longer it will be before the realisation that Brexit is the problem. But that day will come. Of that I am quite certain.
