Tuesday 18 December 2018

POLL 101 IN WHATUKTHINKS SERIES

The 101st poll was published yesterday (HERE) in the WhatUKthinks series asking in hindsight if Brexit was right or wrong and although as expected, it shows a drop from the record 11% gap in the last poll on 4th December, it is another healthy 6% lead for WRONG. RIGHT has not been in front since 17th January and unless something really unexpected happens I do not expect it to lead ever again.  This was the 49th poll of 2018 with WRONG leading in 48 of them.

Looking at the graph, there is a clear and growing separation between RIGHT and WRONG.

WRONG is now consistently at 45-47% while RIGHT has not been above 42% since September.

I first noticed this series of polls in 2017 (HERE) where I said there was a glimmer of light because the polling then was just starting to show a mixed pattern of results as RIGHT and WRONG crossed over. The change in attitude has been slow in coming but WRONG is inexorably pulling ahead and if anything, what appears to be on the Brexit horizon should increase this trend.