The cabinet has decided to step up planning for 'full scale' no deal with 100 days to go (HERE). Letters and an advice pack are to be sent to 145,000 businesses which trade predominantly with the EU and 3500 troops will be placed on standby (HERE). None of this is serious stuff. It is a charade and intended for domestic consumption only. The EU are perfectly well aware of the damage we would inflict on ourselves and know we are not going to do it.
Whether or not this is all part of some great plan which is unfolding before us I don't know, but we may one day have cause to be grateful that we have come so far without a deal being settled. The no-deal advice may be our ace.
The government is intending to spend £2
billion across various departments but most of this will be in 2019-20
after we have left. The chancellor clearly doesn't want to waste £2
billion and won't commit any money until long after it would have been
any use.
In the next few days and weeks, through the no-deal advice, the public will I hope, come to realise what Brexit actually means. When the sheer scale of the risks and difficulties involved in separating ourselves so unnecessarily from the myriad and multi layered connections we have with 27 other European countries, perhaps people will finally wake up to the damage that Brexit will cause.
Let me make a prediction about the advice. Firstly, it will go out of its way to reassure us that no deal is not the preferred outcome. Secondly, the advice will be ridiculously simplistic and almost useless. The difficulty the government has is that nobody knows how the EU will deal with our exports into their market and therefore very little practical or detailed guidance can be given.
We may find out more about the EU's response later today when they will publish additional notifications but you can bet they will point out that as of 30th March we will become a third country and should be treated as such - except where it benefits the EU.
Leaving without a deal is unthinkable but what the advice will do is
demonstrate why we are in such a weak position to negotiate a good
deal. No deal is not better than a bad deal and never was. The sheer emptiness of the threat will be seen for what it was.
Business is already reacting this morning (HERE), even before anything has been sent to them that it is not credible to suggest that the risks around leaving without a deal can be 'managed'. Some are demanding a new referendum (HERE) as polls show a rising number want to have another vote and preference for remaining in the EU increases to its highest level (HERE).
At least two Tory MPs are so horrified at the potential chaos of leaving without a deal that they have publicly said if this ever becomes official policy they will immediately resign the Conservative whip and vote against the government (HERE).
And in Ireland there is some bemusement and alarm at Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, saying on TV that he is now the biggest buyer of fridges to store medicines (HERE).
Channel 4 News last night ran a long piece about Dover and spoke to freight forwarders, one of whom said that on March 30th, if we leave without a deal it would be 'Armageddon'. It was fascinating television of the kind we should have seen before the 2016 referendum.
Up to now, whenever anyone said a no deal Brexit might cause problems they were drowned out by Brexiteers telling us it was all scaremongering. As the no deal reality looms ever larger and clearer, it is time for government and business to shout from the rooftops, louder and louder what Brexit actually means. The warnings must be heard, must be believed and there must be another referendum.
