There is a strange air of unreality this weekend, with just 20 days to go to Brexit but absolutely no sign of panic anywhere as we head inexorably to what some think would be a catastrophe. It is as if nobody actually believes we are going to leave on March 29th without a deal - and they're right. May's speech to the puzzled people of Grimsby yesterday has not gone down as well as she hoped - in fact it has been very badly received in Brussels, which was its intended target.
The local newspaper (HERE) said it sent a strong message to the EU with the PM telling Brussels the ball was in their court, "when it comes to outcome of the vote in the House of Commons on Tuesday, March 12". Sometimes it seems Brexit is like a tennis match where only one player hits the ball.
She said: "My message to them [the EU] - now is the moment to act. We have worked hard together on a deal. It needs just one more push to address the specific concerns of our Parliament. Let’s do what is necessary for the MPs to back the deal."
That the prime minister had to go to Grimsby to plead with Brussels for compromise sounds ridiculous and it was. Did it have any effect? No. The EU were not impressed and according to ITV's European reporter Angus Walker (HERE) it has had the opposite effect:
"One diplomat told me on Friday that the EU has always negotiated with goodwill and there was no place for blame games. A senior official suspects this speech will wipe out any remaining sympathy for Theresa May among EU leaders"
Michel Barnier has offered Great Britain a unilateral exit from the backstop - but insists Northern Ireland must remain in the customs union and keep regulatory alignment with the EU (HERE). I'm not sure if he was being serious or not. It would be a return to the position as it was before the Joint Report in December 2017. This is what sparked the row with the DUP and gave us the UK wide backstop in the first place. Needless to say the DUP and Downing Street have both dismissed it.
The laugh is that Stephen Barclay, Brexit Secretary, has said this is not the time to "rerun old arguments", something the UK has been doing for months, by asking repeatedly for a time limit and a unilateral exit mechanisms. I suppose Barnier might have though if the UK can keep going back on points already settled he should have a go as well.
The EU's chief negotiator took the opportunity to spell out the other extra legal assurances the EU have given this week in a series of tweets (HERE). Many people think they were simply to head off accusations it was all the EU's fault.
Our 'affable lummox' Foreign Secretary, Jeremy Hunt, switched to playing the grim reaper in the background telling the BBC (HERE) yesterday morning that unless the EU compromise, relations between the UK and the EU will be 'poisoned', something he also implicitly said in July last year during a visit to Germany (HERE). In February he was saying if the U.K. leave the EU without a deal, it would 'cast a shadow over the Continent'.
None of it will have any effect. It's tantamount to a threat that unless we are given what are demanding we'll throw a wobbler and storm off in a huff. In my experience this is a sure sign we know we're in the wrong.
None of this bodes well for the UK as an article in The Irish Times (HERE) ably demonstrates. It is about the EU being the dominant power in Europe. The writer Brigid Laffan, director of the Robert Schuman centre for advanced studies at the European University Institute in Italy, says one of the strategic goals of the whole talks was "to demonstrate the centrality of the EU in governing transnational relations in Europe. This was particularly important given the depiction of the EU during the UK referendum as weak and on the verge of collapse".
None of this bodes well for the UK as an article in The Irish Times (HERE) ably demonstrates. It is about the EU being the dominant power in Europe. The writer Brigid Laffan, director of the Robert Schuman centre for advanced studies at the European University Institute in Italy, says one of the strategic goals of the whole talks was "to demonstrate the centrality of the EU in governing transnational relations in Europe. This was particularly important given the depiction of the EU during the UK referendum as weak and on the verge of collapse".
"European non-member states, including the departing UK, must reach an accommodation with the union. Hence, the Brexit process unfolds on the union’s terms".
She says the second goal was to show membership matters and the third to "safeguard the union as a rules-based system held together by treaties, laws and institutions"
Brussels has succeeded in all three.
The EU cannot and will not compromise. Strategically, it is important for them to put down a marker not just for the Withdrawal Agreement or even the future trading relationship but for the entire future of Europe as a beacon of peace, security and human rights.
The EU cannot and will not compromise. Strategically, it is important for them to put down a marker not just for the Withdrawal Agreement or even the future trading relationship but for the entire future of Europe as a beacon of peace, security and human rights.
