Does America need a revolution

In one of the richest nations in the world, it comes as a surprise to learn that 40 million Americans rely on government assistance to afford enough food. The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), known as food stamps, is a US government programme that provides food-purchasing help for low-income families to help them "maintain adequate nutrition and health." This comes at the amazing cost of $50-$60 billion a year!  And don't imagine for one second that SNAP replaces food banks. In 2016, some 200 food banks, 60,000 food pantries and soup kitchens served 4 billion meals to 46 million people. No, America apparently needs SNAP and food banks. Sometimes I think the US needs a revolution along the lines of the French at the end of the eighteenth century, minus all the bloodshed, of course.

Brexit and UK Trade - a "persistent underperformance"

Since Brexit, the contribution that external trade makes to Britain’s GDP has “stagnated” because of “persistent underperformance”, according to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and reported by the FT. The UK’s exports of goods are languishing at 17% below their pre-COVID level, and the WTO identifies Brexit as the main cause. This is what we remainers might see as a statement of the obvious. No doubt Farage and his diminishing band of Brexit supporters will reject the WTO as biased, but when it comes to world trade, it’s difficult to dismiss the findings of the very organisation set up to regulate it. However, it doesn’t mean they won’t try.

Russia near to collapse and Reform UK's descent into chaos

The Russian economy is much smaller than California's and roughly the same size as Italy. It was never capable of financing a long war of attrition, and the massive losses of men and material in Ukraine was always going to take their toll. If you can win a quick war, the size of the economy is irrelevant; however, once you are at a stalemate over a long period and suffering huge losses, the largest economy must ultimately prevail. I'm surprised Russia has lasted as long as it has since they are up against the resources of US and the EU, but it seems they are nearing the end. The BBC's Moscow correspondent, Steve Rosenberg, summarised the Russian newspapers yesterday, and one report suggested: “Russian industry is balancing on the verge of an all-industry collapse.” 

Farage the divider

Nigel Farage has given an interview to Mishal Husain for her show on Bloomberg TV check. A transcript is available HERE. It’s a warning of what is to come if the British people are ever unwise enough or sufficiently disillusioned with their lives to vote him into Downing Street. We have had to suffer Brexit to finally convince a majority that leaving the EU was not the solution that he claimed it was, or indeed to anything at all. Life hasn’t improved one iota as a result of Brexit. If anything, it’s got markedly worse.  I fear that it may take a catastrophic period of Farage government to demonstrate just how spectacularly ill-equipped he is to manage anything. 

Labour need to be bolder

Plaid Cymru has won the Caerphilly by-election with 47% of the vote in a record turnout. Reform came second on 36% while Labour came a distant third with 11%. It's Labour's first defeat in the area for 100 years and they might note that Plaid's policy on Brexit is to reverse it and rejoin the EU Single Market and Customs Union as soon as it's practical. In the longer term, the party believes Wales should rejoin the EU as an independent nation, a similar policy to the SNP in Scotland. In the meantime, they want Wales to have closer alignment with the EU. Openly calling for Brexit to be reversed at some point obviously hasn’t damaged Plaid’s prospects. Labour, meanwhile, has been shoved into third place.

The Trump cult

Trump is a walking mass of personality disorders. He cannot admit ever to having made a mistake, always a sign of a weak man in my experience. On Ukraine, it's impossible for Trump to admit that Putin has played him like a fish for years. The much-touted meeting in Hungary between him and Putin has been cancelled following Putin's flat refusal even to discuss a ceasefire along the current line of contact. Zelensky has been patiently explaining to the orange idiot that only military might will force Russia to quit fighting, while Trump has been refusing to increase military aid, the exact opposite of a solution and guaranteed to extend the war. 

The crazy Trump dump, and Putin's bluff

Donald Trump has posted a lot of crazy stuff on his own Truth Social platform and Twitter in the last few years, but yesterday I genuinely think marked the day he totally lost his mind. On Saturday, the 'No Kings' protests took place right across the USA. Organisers claimed 2,400 protests in total, covering every major city, every state and over eight million people, reportedly the largest in history. Nobody has ever seen anything like it, to use one of Trump's own stock phrases. And it seems they all went off peacefully without any violence. But Trump was obviously enraged by it all.

The immigration debacle

Polling shows that by a 2:1 majority, people in this country prefer the pre-Brexit immigration system we had before 2020 to the current one. It seems we now ruefully look back to when immigration was running at 2-300,000 a year and men like Nigel Farage stood in front of posters proclaiming Britain was at “breaking point”. At the same time, the prime minister kept going on television insisting he could get it down to the “tens of thousands.” Last year saw net migration (incomers less leavers) into this country hit 431,000, well DOWN on the 906,000 seen in 2023. Most of our hugely increased immigration since Brexit has been non-EU; last year, EU migration was actually negative.

Reeves: an important first step

The Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is currently rolling the pitch, ready for her widely anticipated statement in November, which will explicitly blame Farage and Brexit for the coming tax rises that break Labour's pre-election pledges. She told Sky News this week that the Office of Budget Responsibility have “consistently overestimated” the UK’s productivity, pointing to the impact of “austerity, Brexit and the ongoing impact of Liz Truss’s mini budget.” Nobody should be shocked, so it's hard to see what the government is worried about and why it has been so tentative. Of the three reasons she is using to excuse the tax increases, one is absolutely central to reversing the other two. 

Kevin Maguire: Farage can't lead this country

Kevin Maguire is an Associate Editor of the Daily Mirror and also their politics columnist. His position on Brexit is well known; he’s anti the whole thing and very pro-EU. The recent coming into force of the EU’s Entry/Exit border controls (EES) on 12 October prompted him to write a furious piece about “police-style mugshots and fingerprinting just to go on holiday around Europe.” He lays the blame squarely where it belongs, on Nigel Farage, who he says: ‘could never be trusted to run Britain after getting Brexit so wrong'  Maguire is of course absolutely right.