Stephen Miller, the power behind the throne

Stephen Miller is deputy chief of staff in Trump’s White House and the man responsible for many of the worst excesses being promulgated by presidential Executive Orders, the power behind the throne. In fact, I am pretty sure that Trump doesn’t actually read and certainly doesn’t understand what he’s signing. They are simply props in the theatre that allow him to be the centre of attention, the same position he has craved for decades. Miller writes, or has the EOs legally written, and simply gives Trump a quick verbal summary before placing the folder in front of the president so he can add his signature in his usual thick marker pen. And that’s it.

Brexit: Counting the costs of form filling

The Bank of England governor has called for Britain to “rebuild” the trading relationship with the EU. Speaking at a conference hosted by the Icelandic central bank, Andrew Bailey told the BBC, “Having a more open economy to trade with the European Union … would be beneficial because there has been a fall-off in goods trade with the EU over recent years.” The Guardian points out that food and drink exports to the continent have fallen by 34% since Brexit. That’s a lot. I don’t know what Bailey expects from the present 'reset' talks but an SPS agreement with Brussels might help in that direction but it won’t solve the problem that other industries face.

UK - two trade 'deals' in a week

It appears that we will see two 'trade deals' announced this week. The one with India is good news, no doubt about it. But the impact is likely to be barely noticeable, with GDP to increase by 0.1% per year in the long run, defined as 2040. This, according to the government amounts to about £4.8 billion a year in 15 years. I assume this means we will have a GDP of about £4.8 trillion at that time. It is a flea bite in national wealth terms but every little helps I suppose. India, remember is a nation of 1.4 billion, mostly poor people although it does have a rising middle class of about 60 million. It is notoriously protectionist so I expect we have had to make some serious concessions. The second is with the USA or more properly with President Trump.

The post-war settlement is coming to an end

The D-day anniversary celebrations yesterday are a reminder of the origins of the modern world, built out of the ashes of the old one. It was the starting point of eighty years of unprecedented peace and prosperity. All of that is now coming to an end. As Ursula Von Der Leyen said recently: “The West as we knew it no longer exists.” Trump is responsible, let there be no mistake about that. And the surge in support for Reform UK in last week’s local council and mayoral elections is a small echo of what happened in the USA in November. The extreme right is making gains across the developed world by listing and endlessly repeating the problems facing many Western democracies: slow economic growth, stagnant living standards, and rising immigration.

Reform has planted the seeds of their own destruction

Reform had a stunning success last week, winning control of ten local authorities, the Greater Lincolnshire mayoralty, and gaining another MP in Runcorn. They took 677 council seats, 41% of those being contested and with 31% of votes cast, were well ahead of all the other parties. The Tories were on 23%, the LibDems 17%. Labour took just 14%.  Some polling appeared to show nearly half of Reform voters did so to ‘send a message’ to the government. Sir John Curtice seems to disagree with that analysis.  Now comes the real test, can they govern? The “fruitcakes, loonies, and closet racists” are now in charge of some sizeable budgets and we’ll soon see how that works out. Reform UK’s victories finally got the seeds of their own destruction firmly planted.

Reform's night of victory

Reform UK has another MP after scraping a win in the Runcorn & Helsby by-election by just six votes, overturning a huge Labour majority. Their candidate Sarah Pochin thanked Nigel Farage for his ‘leadership’ in an echo of a Trump cabinet meeting. The awful Andrea Jenkyns, former Tory MP for Morley & Outwood, has won the mayoral election in Greater Lincolnshire for Reform. The firm (for it is not actually a party) will no doubt gain many more council seats when the results are announced later today. It also reveals that we are not immune to the ever-rightward drift seen in the USA and parts of Europe. The last 15 years of disappointing economic growth and stagnant living standards is to blame.

Trump's 100 day demolition of America

Trump is marking the first 100 days of his second term with a list of his 'achievements' but he hasn't included the most significant ones. He has single-handedly destroyed trust in the American election system and even democracy itself. He has brought ever closer the constitutional crisis that his presidency has always threatened to deliver. He has totally undermined the US Constitution and the rule of law and brought the Republic that the founding fathers created 250 years ago next year to the edge of ruin. Unless the judiciary and the Senate begin to stand up to him, and they are the only ones who can, America will be lost to Western democracy and the foundations of the most powerful nation on earth will be shaken to pieces.  

The GOP will be the biggest loser from Trumpism

The Republican Party will be the biggest loser from the Trump era. He has hijacked the GOP and turned it into a cult owing allegiance only to him. I assume some senior party leaders recognise the colossal damage he is doing to America but are afraid to speak out. To cross Donald Trump is to invite political suicide, such is his hold on the MAGA movement that has permeated the party since 2015. It is hardly a surprise that Trump’s polling numbers continue to slide. He appears to have zero regard for what the majority in America wants. There are 42-43% who still approve of what he’s doing, but the number is falling slowly as more and more voters are personally impacted by his Executive Orders.

Money and politics

We can be grateful for two things in the United Kingdom: the restrictions on election campaign financing and the legal obligation on national broadcasters to provide balance in their political reporting. In America, there are no limits on either. The total spending by all the parties involved in the UK’s general election last year was around £97 million. This was mainly the bigger ones; the smaller parties spent less than £2 million. The total is absolute chicken feed compared to America.  Last year’s presidential and congressional elections (not all congressional seats are contested) cost a fraction under $16 BILLION (around £12 billion). Even accounting for the difference in population (the US has about four times the electorate) this is still a massive disparity - close to 120 times as much. 

Progress in EU reset talks and it's 1938 in Ukraine

Reports are appearing in the press about progress in the ongoing talks between the UK and EU. We shouldn’t overlook the telling fact that these talks are taking place at the request of the Labour government and their attempts to ‘reset’ the relationship, not the EU. We rejoined Horizon, the EU's flagship scientific research scheme, under the last Tory government in January 2024. This was agreed in the trade deal under Johnson but blocked by the EU over non-compliance with the NI protocol.  Rishi Sunak had to bend and agree to the Windsor Framework as the price of gaining access to Horizon.