THE UNTHINKABLE HAPPENED - JOHNSON IS PM!

Johnson's moment of triumph came as expected yesterday. This afternoon, barring some last minute reprieve, like Carrie Symonds attacking him with a grapefruit knife, he will go to the palace and return as our prime minister.  God help us all.  If, like me, the very sight of him makes you want to gag, you are going to be in for a rough time over the next few days and weeks. The clown will fill our screens, ad nauseum. 

DECISION DAY FOR LABOUR

All attention is turning to Labour's National Executive Committee which meets later today to thrash out their strategy for the European elections in May (HERE).  In the past nobody would have had the slightest interest in these sort of arcane meetings to discuss what does or doesn't go in to the party's manifesto.  And in truth, nobody is interested now in anything other than the question of a confirmatory vote and whether or not Labour will make an explicit commitment to put the final deal to the people.

LEAVE - WRONGDOING FROM THE START

Facebook yesterday banned several far right extremist groups (HERE) and leaders 'because those involved had proclaimed a 'violent or hateful mission' and were 'Individuals and organisations who spread hate'. These included The English Defence League, Britain First and the BNP as well as The National Front.

A SECOND REFERENDUM IS ESSENTIAL

Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern have an article in The Irish Times (HERE) calling for a second referendum or a confirmatory vote, mainly on the grounds of preserving the Belfast Agreement which is of course, vital to maintaining peace in Ireland. However, they don't mention what I think is one of the strongest reasons for a second vote, something which other commentators don't seem to talk about either. This is that the original 1975 referendum was in essence also confirmatory.

A SECOND REFERENDUM

The calls for a second referendum are starting to grow and if Labour are backing the idea there's a chance we might get one. What is noticeable is the resistance to it from leavers and Brexiteers. Liz Truss says it would "trigger a massive crisis" (HERE) and BoJo thinks it would "unleash anger" (HERE). Why this should be so isn't obvious to me. The Irish had a second referendum on the Nice Treaty in 2002 and again on the Lisbon Treaty in 2009.  Denmark had a second referendum on the Maastricht treaty in 1993.  None sparked a massive crisis or unleashed anger as far as I know.

AN ARTICLE 50 EXTENSION IS ON THE WAY

There is an informative report on the Politico website HERE about the 'phone conversation between May and Tusk on Wednesday night. One can almost hear the sheer exasperation in the reported words of the EU Council president. I would have loved to have been a fly on the wall after Tusk put receiver down. I bet what he said was unprintable in any of the 24 official languages of the EU.

WHY A PEOPLE'S VOTE IS ESSENTIAL

If nothing else, yesterdays defeat of the government's deal shows it is never going to make it through the House. And the problem is one which has been obvious from the start. There is no half-way house between EU membership and being an independent state. Theresa May has now tested that policy to destruction. She thought there was a central position that would reconcile the two sides of the Conservative party and at the same time be acceptable to the EU. She has failed.

THE DEAL WOULD TAKE US BACKWARDS

Dominic Grieve was on Newsnight last night defending himself from charges that his amendment, which resulted in the government's defeat yesterday afternoon, would have the effect of making a no deal outcome more likely. He rejected the charge and I think he was right to do so. But he did say something that I thought hit the nail on the head. 

WE ARE NOT LEAVING THE EU ON MARCH 29th

The current Brexit Secretary, Stephen Barclay, assured the nation on TV last December that the meaningful vote would go ahead. A few hours later the PM decided that it wouldn't. He was assuring us yesterday that the UK will leave the EU on March 29th which means with almost 100% certainty that we will not. Even The Telegraph is coming to that conclusion.

SUPPORT FOR 2ND VOTE GROWING AT 'FASTEST RATE'

Best for Britain, with the help of former Attorney General Dominic Grieve and some constitutional lawyers, has produced a detailed summary of the unexplored options that might lead to a People's Vote. It is not a delusional wish list but a hard look at what is politically possible and practical. The document, called Roads not yet explored: Routes to a Final Say, is HERE.  It  claims that in parliament, a second vote has "the most support - and growing at the fastest rate".

SECOND REFERENDUM DRAWS CLOSER

The prospect of a second referendum is growing by the week, although this morning Theresa May explicitly warns against it, saying it would 'break faith' with the British people (HERE). This makes it more likely than ever.  It looks certain her negotiated deal will not make it through parliament and there seems no majority for any Brexit outcome. There is talk of holding a series of votes in the House to see if MPs can coalesce around something but there is scepticism about ever reaching any kind of consensus.

A SECOND REFERENDUM

I note that some MPs like Phillip Lee (HERE) are suggesting that if the PM fails to get parliament to agree to her deal, she must put it to the country in a referendum. This is perhaps the only way she might be able to force MPs to approve the deal but it will take months to organise and no guarantee that even with the impetus of a second referendum behind it, her deal would get approved.

A SECOND REFERENDUM

Richard Tice, who is a co-founder of Leave means leave, has been talking about another referendum and claims they're already raising money and planning for one (HERE). He says it will be 'brutal' and 'divisive' as if the last one was a kind of unifying vicarage tea party. I note he is suggesting it should be a straight leave or remain option: