GE2017 POLLING BROKEN DOWN

YouGov have produced some interesting figures breaking down the voting for the General Election last week (HERE). The bar chart below says it all for me. Younger voters in the 18-19 age group prefer Labour by 66% to just 19% for the Tories. While in the over 70 the numbers are virtually reversed with 69% preferring the Tories compared to just 19% for Labour.

THE ELECTION POLLING

The result may be a blessing in disguise. A final plea to the politicians to show how divided we are on Brexit and to negotiate the withdrawal carefully and on behalf of everyone, not just the 52% who were misled into voting to leave. The rest of us cannot change our mind overnight and our views matter too. We will limp along I'm sure as we always do but my money is on the final deal being signed by someone other than Theresa May. 

GE2017

The Conservatives it seems are going into government with some kind of loose arrangement with the DUP and may be able to command a majority of two in the House. It is utterly outrageous that it should take a cobbled together coalition to force through the greatest political change in anybody's lifetime, it means she is at the mercy of a variety of vested interests both in the DUP and in her own party. This could however, be a good thing for us.

GE2017 - A GREAT NIGHT FOR LABOUR

Well, I didn't see that coming! YouGov are vindicated. They predicted a hung parliament and this is what we have. I'm not sure they believed their own forecast at the time since it was so far from many other pollsters but in the event they were spot on as was the exit poll. What does it mean?

THE TORY MANIFESTO 2017 - another useless industrial strategy

The Conservative manifesto talks of a modern industrial strategy. It mentions this twenty four times in 88 pages. I've lost count of the number of industrial strategies that various governments have tried over the years. From Harold Wilson's white heat of technology to John Major's City Technology Colleges. As far as I can tell they all failed. This is obvious since Mrs May is trying yet another one which differentiates itself by the prefix "modern". I predict confidently that this too will fail.

IS BREXIT OPPOSITION REALLY GROWING?

A little while ago I posted something about the demographics of Brexit (HERE) to the effect that as older pro-leave voters die, new pro-remain voters will join the electorate and sooner or later there will be a majority to remain.  I still hold to this view but The Independent had a report a few days ago (HERE) suggesting opposition to Brexit was at its height. I think the headline was a bit misleading but at the same time also slightly encouraging.

A CYNICAL GENERAL ELECTION

After telling us for month after month there would be no general election before 2020 Mrs May announced yesterday to the surprise and shock of most people, there will be one on June 8th. It may have been rational but it was also opportunistic and based on the dire and incoherent position of the Labour party and her eighteen point lead in the latest opinion polls. I suppose we should expect no less from our politicians. Voters more often than not reward such cynicism.