THE SHAPE OF THINGS TO COME

Switzerland is in EFTA and Schengen but not the European Economic Area and is in a bit of a dispute with the EU over their relationship, which is very complicated, governed by 120 separate bilateral agreements. The breaching of any single agreement could result in all 120 being broken. The EU, not unreasonably in my opinion, wants to have a more permanent, all embracing and easily managed agreement, something akin to the EEA, I assume. Briefings for Brexit (HERE) thinks the EU is 'bullying' Switzerland and believes it's the 'shape of things to come'.

GATT ARTICLE 24

As March 29th rushes up some Brexiteers are still clinging to the idea we can drop out of the EU with no Withdrawal Agreement and somehow implement Article 24 of GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) to carry on dealing with Brussels and Europe for ten years as if nothing has happened. It has been comprehensively debunked many times, not least by Sir Ivan Rogers, yet still it keeps popping up.

US-UK TRADE AGREEMENT - US OBJECTIVES

A summary of US-UK Negotiating Objectives for a future FTA has been published by the Americans (HERE). It does not make happy reading. The US is quite open about what it wants from a US-UK trade deal and the media report it gleefully. CNN says the United States is "giving the United Kingdom a preview of what it can expect from take-no-prisoners trade negotiations after Brexit" (HERE). The Daily Mail (HERE) goes with, "US demands UK DROPS 'barriers' to low-quality food imports in a post-Brexit trade deal".

GLOBAL BRITAIN

There is an article in The Scotsman (HERE) by Brian Monteith of Global Britain, a Brexiteer, Conservative and now Communications Director at Global Britain, a website which describes itself as having fought for Britain to leave the EU since 1997, before the word Brexit was even thought of. The article has the grand title: Eurozone stats should underline advantages of leaving EU - it's a very well crafted article setting out what Mr Monteith explains is why "the UK’s economic future lies outside the EU and why we should be confident of economic success after our departure".

ROLLING OVER TRADE DEALS WITH FOX

The original swivel eyed Brexiteer, now the International Trade Secretary, Liam Fox, has been answering questions in the House on EU Trade Agreements - Replication (HERE).  I assume this was a long scheduled appearance so one can only assume The Sun's decision to publish a leaked document showing how little progress has been made, was down to mischief and demonstrates he is not popular at Wapping.

GATT ARTICLE 24

It's quite amazing the lengths Brexiteers go to in arguing that no deal won't damage the economy. Most of them seem to think trading on WTO terms is perfectly okay. However, David Campbell-Bannerman (he wrote the 2010 UKIP manifesto) is now writing on Brexit Central HERE that under some obscure 1947 GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) article we can carry on trading with the EU without tariffs for ten years although he suggests we should do it for just two years.

WILL WE EVER AGREE A TRADE DEAL WITH THE EU?

I always try to catch whatever Robert Peston has to say and I found this item (HERE) particularly intriguing. Peston is asking what May's biggest mistake has been on Brexit. He focuses on the backstop but let's be honest the list is long and full of serious, fundamental and unforgivable errors. She has had access to and rejected the best advice that money could buy so Peston is right to conclude she has only herself to blame.

TRADE DEALS - AND THEN THERE WAS ONE

I found this Commons Briefing Paper (HERE) published on 28th December summarising the consequences of leaving the EU without a deal. It's 213 pages long, covers dozens of topics and is titled: What if there's no Brexit deal?  Idly flicking through it (as you do) I must say it isn't altogether reassuring. One of the issues raised is the question of the trade deals the EU has with non-EU countries. I haven't heard much about this for months and I wondered what the CBP had to say.

SUZANNE EVANS AND CUSTOMS CHECKS

Suzanne Evans, former UKIP deputy chairwoman, was on Newsnight last night giving the usual Brexiteer assurance that leaving the EU and trading on 'global WTO terms' was not a problem, it was all overblown. By coincidence, I was only half listening while flicking through the latest Brexit headlines on my tablet and as she was speaking I was reading about a meeting between the Road Haulage Association and the authorities from Calais (HERE) where these 'overblown' problems were being discussed.

FOX ON THE ROCKS

The Sunday Times had some rich pickings yesterday, apart from the imbecile Davis writing under his own name, we had an article (HERE) about Liam Fox and his global trading fantasies. If I was Fox I wouldn't bother to read it, it is not good news. The title is: Liam Fox’s dream of a global Britain hits the rocks. The sub-title: Despite the hype, no country will make a trade alliance until our deal with the EU is clear. The writer is a Tony Stubbington.

SPAIN THREATENS TO BLOCK THE DEAL

Spain is playing last minute hard ball over Gibraltar, demanding Article 184 of the WA contain an explicit reference to the fact that negotiations over the Rock are separate to the withdrawal agreement (HERE). They are threatening not to attend the summit in Brussels on Sunday even as Theresa May travels there today for final discussions with Jean Claude Juncker.

 

FRICTIONLESS TRADE

As I mentioned earlier, one of the big issues for our future relationship with the EU is the so-called "frictionless trade" which is shorthand for essentially keeping the benefits of what we have now. The PM has talked about it a lot and it's mentioned in her Mansion House speech in March this year - "So we have thought seriously about how our commitment to a frictionless border can best be delivered". 

NOW WE'RE BEGGING MOLDOVA

Terrific story on Bloomberg (HERE) about Britain's attempt to join the WTO's Government Procurement Agreement (GPA). To show how many friends we've got, the "U.S., New Zealand Japan, South Korea, Ukraine, and Israel [expressed] concern that the U.K. application didn’t pass muster, according to officials familiar with the accession procedure. U.S. reticence was due to the U.K.’s failure to provide requested information and updates". But this isn't the best part of it.

MORE TECHNICAL NOTICES ON NO DEAL PLANNING

The final tranche of technical notices on how to plan for a no deal outcome was released by the government yesterday afternoon. Notices on Geo Blocking, Gas trading, Accounting and Auditing, Providing Professional Services, Health Marks on Meats and Fish, etc were included. See the complete list HERE. They are all, as far as I can see, rather bland and don't tell us much more than we already knew but the press have picked up on a few key points in the most recent ones.

THE TRADE PROBLEMS MOUNT

An important first step in the UK becoming an independent nation is the settling of our tariff schedules and trade quotas at the WTO.  We are already members of the WTO in our own right but our import quotas are EU totals at present and they will need to be split between the UK and the EU. This is proving to be a serious difficulty. I posted an item about this a year ago (HERE) and linked to an item on the Politico website which said:

THE RATIFICATION OF CETA

Since we are on the verge of a Canadian style FTA or more correctly a Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) I thought it would be useful to have a look in a bit more detail and found that the House of Commons library published a research briefing (HERE) on it in July this year which makes interesting reading. Work began to negotiate a free trade deal with Canada in May 2009 and it took until 2014 to settle the details plus another two years before it was signed in October 2016. The briefing paper says, "CETA has been in force provisionally since September 2017. Most, but not all, of the agreement is in force".

DAVIS AND THE IfG

David Davis is like one of those blokes you meet in the pub occasionally. He can't wait to tell you how good he is.  He sees himself as a titan of the business world.  Everything he ever did was a doddle and to a man of his prodigious talent, things he hasn't yet done would come even easier - if he ever tried. In truth his colleagues probably all thought he was hopeless. Just after the campaign in July 2016 the little twerp told us (HERE) we would have trade deals sorted in no time at all:

SWERVING THE BACKSTOP

Paul Goodman writes for Conservative Home. He is one of those committed Brexiteers for whom there is no limit to the price the nation must pay to get out of the EU. However, like most leavers he is happier if the cost falls on other people rather than him personally. He rightly concludes that the Chequers plan is dead and now says (HERE) that Theresa May has three strategic choices: remaining in the EU, going for an EFTA/EEA arrangement or a Canada style FTA like CETA. He then dismisses the first two as not what the British people voted for or want.

WHY CETA IS NOT THE ANSWER

A few days ago, Nick Boles MP, a former minister was saying Chequers was dead and that we should park ourselves temporarily in the EEA - getting there via EFTA first - before spending a few years negotiating a CETA style free trade deal (HERE).  Now John Longworth, writing on Brexit Central, is calling for us to grab with both hands the EU's offer of a Canada style free trade deal (HERE). The difference is that Longworth wants to do it immediately and wouldn't countenance a temporary spell in the EEA.

FOX'S TRADE BOOSTING EFFORTS RESULT IN "SHOCK FALL"

One might almost feel sorry for Liam Fox (no don't worry, I only said might). He has been going round talking up Global Britain and globe trotting around the world to boost trade. He wants to see exports up to 35% of GDP, from about 30% now - an increase of about £100 billion a year. After a couple of years our exports are now going down. The latest Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) shows UK manufacturing growth at a 25 month low. This is after the pound suffered a serious drop after the referendum which supposedly made exports cheaper and should have boosted the export figures. Sadly, it didn't.