THE TORY PARTY AND THE THANATOS URGE

We shall know later this morning if the Tory party has had a collective death wish and, as widely anticipated, chosen the moral and intellectual bankrupt Boris Johnson as their leader. Let's be honest, it would be a miracle if they haven't. It is difficult for me to see how it will not all end in disaster for them and him and probably us. Interestingly, someone posted a link on our Facebook page yesterday to a book review by Fintan O'Toole of Boris' only novel published in 2004. It's well worth a read - the review I mean, not the book.

BOJO - MORE HOSTAGES TO FORTUNE

Boris Johnson has offered so many hostages to fortune on the 31st October deadline that  fortune must be struggling to put them up. Presumably, they're all chained to the wall in a cellar somewhere. The latest two were his claim that we will leave on Halloween 'do or die,' (HERE) followed by an open letter to Jeremy Hunt challenging him to do the same (HERE).

HOW THE BACKSTOP IS PIVOTAL TO BREXIT and how we have still not faced up to it

There is a nice article on CapX this morning (HERE) about how we have still not faced up to the Brexit predicament we are in with regard to the backstop and how it fits in with EU (and UK government) policy for the future relationship. The piece is by William Davison  a former Bloomberg journalist and well worth a read.

GUIDO FAWKES - AND THE IRISH BORDER

Guido Fawkes is a rabid pro-Brexit blog with an angry, snarling, jingoistic readership which Paul Staines goads into a frenzy most days with posts and links to every hard right story, usually fake, that finds it's way into the press or social media. It should come with a health warning. However, I think it is struggling to maintain the 'Brexit is good' narrative.

THE IRISH BORDER - WHERE DID IT COME FROM?

With the focus unable to shift away from the Irish border backstop it is perhaps opportune to go back to see where the border itself originally came from. There is a highly readable article in the Irish Times (HERE) describing the problems surrounding its creation. We British are notorious for drawing national boundaries in other people's countries aren't we? Usually, in our well-meaning but cack-handed way, we do it to resolve an immediate issue which later proves to be a constantly troublesome - to put it mildly.

THE BACKSTOP UNDER TELEGRAPH ATTACK

The Telegraph are excelling themselves this weekend with Brexit related articles. The PM kicks it off by telling us (HERE) she's going to 'battle for Britain in Brussels' presumably as opposed to battling for Brussels in Britain, as a lot of Telegraph readers think. Nobody has any faith in her so I'm not sure it makes any difference anyway. She is apparently going with new ideas on the Irish border although if it's the Malthouse compromise they look suspiciously like the old ideas the EU have repeatedly rejected.

THE BACKSTOP IS THE ROAD BLOCK TO BREXIT

The Irish backstop problem is starting to become a big issue in the Tory party and the DUP. There is a developing nervousness that it may be the immovable road block to Brexit. A man named Lee Reynolds, a DUP councillor on Belfast City Council, has written a predictable article for Conservative Home website (HERE) trying to get Brexit out from under the backstop conundrum, basically with an explanation of why a hard border isn't actually proscribed by the Good Friday Agreement and why the return of border posts wouldn't be a problem anyway. There is a lot of support in the comments section for Mr Reynolds' point of view and technically and probably constitutionally, he's right. Installing a hard border wouldn't specifically breach anything written in the GFA.

THE BACKSTOP IS STILL THE ISSUE

Theresa May was updating MPs yesterday on progress (or lack of it) in the negotiations. She had a surprisingly easy time given what was expected after the weekend's lurid headlines. We have now reached 95% agreement apparently but Ireland is still the sticking point. The backstop is proving every bit as difficult as we thought. Unwittingly, the DUP may even have laid the foundations for the UK to remain in the EU or at the very least in the EEA. A report (HERE) tries to explain the problem but even this doesn't quite get the measure of it. 

IRISH BORDER BACKSTOP SOLVED?

Robert Peston at ITV is tweeting that officials from the government and the EU have just reached a settlement on the Irish border backstop. He says it involves "massively" increasing checks on food and livestock  flowing from GB to Northern Ireland. It will be interesting to see if the DUP accept this. There are some minimal checks carried out at present but only yesterday Arlene Foster said the DUP would not accept any "additional" checks.

THE BACKSTOP ISSUE MAY BE BIGGER THAN WE THINK

A reader in public law at Newcastle University, Colin Murray, has written an article (HERE) about the backstop and the Irish border. It's quite a dense read but as I understand it the UK government has got itself into a real fix by making the commitments it has. Firstly, as Mr Murray says, immediately after the referendum by guaranteeing to protect the 1998 Good Friday Agreement (GFA) in full. 

THE IRISH BORDER STILL CONFUSES THE BBC

The British media has picked up Barnier's pre-Salzburg comments in a press conference about improving the EU's proposal for the Irish border, with many interpreting it as a sign of compromise. He said it was not about having land or sea borders but arranging a series of technical checks and defining who does them and where. They could for example be carried out away from the border. The immediate reaction was to think he was talking about checks carried out on goods crossing the Irish border, even the BBC got it wrong apparently.

BACK TO EARTH WITH A BUMP

The French Europe minister Natalie Loiseau, (HERE) has said she is surprised at reports in the British press that the EU is softening it's approach and that President Macron is preparing to "throw us a lifeline" (I think that was a phrase actually used in the UK press). Mme Loiseau is clearly unaware what happens over here on a slow news week. A paper publishes a bit of a garbled overheard conversation later retold second or third hand over a bottle or two of wine. Another paper builds on it, followed by several more and very soon it's the received wisdom. 

IRELAND AND THE AIRLINES

While the Irish border problem still lurks unresolved and unresolvable in the background, the focus at the moment seems to be on air travel, especially so since the Irish PM suggested recently that leaving without a deal would mean aircraft being unable to fly over Ireland - or indeed over the entire EU. As usual the pro Brexit press (HERE) and Jacob Rees-Mogg attacked him on his LBC radio show.

THE POWER IN IRELAND

The post yesterday about the interconnectors (HERE) and energy security after Brexit is confirmed by this report in The Belfast Telegraph (HERE). Northern Ireland doesn't generate enough energy for itself and has to import power from The Republic. There are plans apparently to hire or requisition portable generators and mount them on barges in the Irish Sea.

THE THIRD WAY - JEEZ!

I have mentioned before this mysterious character going by the handle JDD who regularly contributes to the EU Referendum blog and seems very well connected at the centre of power. He is probably either a senior civil servant or a consultant advising ministers and mandarins. He made a slightly cryptic contribution yesterday about the third option for the customs arrangement to avoid a hard border in Ireland. It is being claimed that even David Davis hasn't seen the details of this "third way" customs plan but the BBC were reporting last night the government thought it had come up with a solution. We shall see.

TRADE AND THE ECONOMY IN IRELAND

The Irish Times (HERE) has a report about the extent to which Northern Ireland relies on trade with the Republic for its exports. Figures from the NI Office suggest 30% of NI exports (£2 billion) cross the border to southern Ireland, while just 1% of the Republic's exports (£1 billion) go north. I think these figures will surprise many people and will focus minds on the catastrophic consequences of a hard border for one part of the United Kingdom.

IRELAND - NOT JUST SEMANTICS

I like reading Irish newspapers (the on line variety) at the moment since they're really the only English language media where you can find rational thinking on Brexit. The writers often come across as slightly smug and looking on while an overbearing friend is beaten up. It's a mixture of horror and a bit of schadenfreude, that they are perhaps getting what they deserve. Even the prospect of taking a few punches in the ensuing melee doesn't take the guilty pleasure out of it. So, it is with Chris John's in the Irish Times HERE. 

THE EU DEMOLISHES THE TEMPORARY BORDER PLAN

The EU, after a weekend's work, have produced a graphic on the difference between the UK and the EU proposals for the backstop solution at the Irish border, explaining why it won't work HERE. Bear in mind the Joint Report was published seven months ago on 8th December. The EU published their draft of the legal text for the Withdrawal Agreement, which covered the backstop, on 28th February (HERE).

NEW CUSTOMS PLAN PUBLISHED

The PM and Davis met today after it was reported that Davis, according to one source close to the government, “had gone bananas” over the new backstop proposal because it contained no end date. But as the Evening Standard said (HERE) Brexiteers shouldn't be surprised the backstop period was open ended because it was written into the joint report in December.

CRUNCH TIME FOR MAY AND DAVIS

The BBC were reporting yesterday that the latest wizard backstop plan for the Irish border, shown to the cabinet today, will be published this morning (HERE) amid reports that David Davis is threatening to resign again (HERE) over the lack of a specific time limit. Meanwhile, Politico published yesterday what they claim is the essence of the plan (HERE). A cabinet minister who has seen the four page plan described it as very anodyne so don't get your hopes up.