WE ARE NOT LEAVING THE EU ON MARCH 29th

The current Brexit Secretary, Stephen Barclay, assured the nation on TV last December that the meaningful vote would go ahead. A few hours later the PM decided that it wouldn't. He was assuring us yesterday that the UK will leave the EU on March 29th which means with almost 100% certainty that we will not. Even The Telegraph is coming to that conclusion.

THE GRIEVE AMENDMENT

The Grieve amendment was reinstated by the House of Lords yesterday, by a majority of 354 to 235, even larger than the first time (HERE). It returns to the Commons tomorrow. All the comment in the press is about the parliamentary ping-pong and the prospect of May being defeated but I think the bigger issue is why the government is prepared to die in a ditch over something that on the surface is quite a remote possibility.

DISAPPOINTING DAY

I watched some of the debate in the House of Commons yesterday afternoon. The votes on the Lord's amendments were going the government's way, albeit after they have had to give ground (or perhaps not) on the meaningful vote, so it was a profoundly depressing time. The one bright spot was Ken Clarke's contribution, as usual a masterful speech full of common sense and logical thinking, he debunked to much laughter the idea that Brussels didn't know the government was divided on many issues!

THE GROWING DIVORCE BILL

There was almost jubilation among Brexiteers when the divorce bill was declared at somewhere between £35 - £39 billion as if it was a small price to pay. They at first claimed we shouldn't pay a penny but then claimed £39 billion was a good deal because the EU had demanded 100 billion Euro. Of course they never demanded any specific figure, other than we should pay what we owe - which we have now done.

THE SECRET BILL IS SETTLED BY MAGIC!

After eight months of negotiations it looks like the first and easiest item of the three separation issues has been agreed, at least the newspapers are reporting it as so. But far from remaining secret, The Telegraph says 45-55 billion euro (HERE) and The Guardian 57 billion euro (HERE). Politico (HERE) say 55 billion.

THE BILL, THE BILL? WHAT BILL?

There was an interesting if fanciful item in The Sunday Times this weekend claiming that we have come to some sort of understanding with the EU that the so called divorce bill will be kept secret (HERE) even when we have reached the final agreement. This will be interesting. What is apparently being suggested is that the amount of money "may never be known".

THE BREXIT BILL

There has been outrage in the anti-EU press about the so-called Brexit Bill. The Guardian (HERE) has an article about it which suggests the final figure could be anywhere between nothing at all (David Davis' position) and €100 billion (The Times' calculation).  I found a more considered estimate on the website of a Brussels based economic think tank - Breugel - (HERE).