BRECON & RADNORSHIRE AND TORY ELECTORAL CHANCES

Polls opened this morning for the Brecon and Radnorshire by election and the result should tell us a lot about the Johnson effect as well as the Brexit party's support and local thinking on a no deal Brexit. The LibDems have high hopes but this report suggests it may not be a cinch. However, the pro Brexit vote is likely to be split between the Tories and Farage's mob and it would be a surprise if either of them won.  We will know the result tomorrow morning.

THE SELF DECEPTION OF DAVID DAVIS

One of the things about Brexit that has worried me right from the start is the sheer ignorance of those involved on the leave side and their self deception. Sometimes it's hard to know if the men (it's usually men isn't it?) are deliberately avoiding the facts or simply trying to engage in a gigantic bluff. If it is bluff I am not even sure who the target is. David Davis has been pumping out optimistic nonsense for well over three years (remember the economic benefits of Brexit that we would see by the end of 2018?) and has added to his canon with another article in The Telegraph HERE.

DAVIS LETTER

David Davis has taken to writing letters to The Telegraph. What a come down for a former cabinet minister and what a comparison to BoJo, paid £275,000 a year to write nonsense for the same newspaper. How the mighty are fallen, eh? Not only does Davis not receive any recompense for his nonsense, he chooses a topic which he will almost certainly regret later this year.

MORE DELUSIONAL STUFF FROM DAVID DAVIS

David Davis is still stupidly pushing the government into a reckless piece of international brinkmanship. He clings to the belief that if we prepare for a no deal exit the EU will suddenly deflate and conceded everything we want. He churns out another with-one-bound-Jack-was-free piece in The Telegraph (behind a paywall but read it HERE) instead of where it really belongs, in the pages of the Beano.

DAVIS - SELECTIVE AND WRONG - AS USUAL

The old nutter David Davis spoke in the debate on the economic impact of Brexit on Thursday but as usual his contribution was a mix of error, ignorance, bluster and convoluted nonsense - meaning not very much has changed since he was a minister. He focused on the balance of our exports to the EU compared to the rest of the world, something he often does.  

LEAVING WITH NO DEAL - MAD AS A BOX OF FROGS

By one of those strange coincidences The Sunday Times had a couple of fascinating and inadvertently linked articles this week on the wisdom or otherwise of leaving the EU without a deal, one by David Davis and another by someone who actually knew what they were talking about. David Smith is the Sunday Times long standing economics editor with a regular column in the business section.

THE ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT - Lose 3.9% to gain 0.2%!

The government's economic assessment has been published and you can read all 90 pages of it HERE. It seems to have been written with the idea of deliberate obfuscation in mind and isn't easy to read.  The document points out that future growth depends on a lot of other things, not just EU membership, but there is no disguising the fact that the British economy will be smaller under every possible scenario and all the news outlets carry this message loud and clear, which I hope pushes a few more voters our way.

WE ARE GETTING CLOSER AND CLOSER - TO MEMBERSHIP

Theresa May is off to Brussels for a meeting with Jean Claude Juncker today amid some suggestions it's a bit of choreography to make it look as if her deal has been secured after a serious row. Spain is said to be unhappy about Gibraltar for example (HERE). She is trying to make it all look tough as she works to put the finishing touches to the final and expanded version of the political declaration about the future relationship.  However. I am not sure it's going to help the prime minister. 

THE OLD FOOL DAVIS WRITES AGAIN

The old fool is at it again. David Davis has an article in The Sunday Times this week (behind a paywall but you can see it HERE) essentially demanding the government publish the legal advice Mrs May and the cabinet got from the Attorney General Geoffrey Cox, about the Irish backstop. The hypocrisy is almost overpowering. He resisted publishing the impact assessments on Brexit until he was forced into it, so for him to demand legal advice be published now is a bit rich. 

DAVID DAVIS - STILL DELUSIONAL

There is speculation that if May is jettisoned, David Davis could become a caretaker leader to get us through Brexit. Tories should be very careful. He wrote an article in The Daily Mail (HERE) last week giving his current thoughts on Brexit. If there was anybody left in this country in any doubt about his total unsuitability to do paid work of any kind the article should convince them. One has to read it and be amazed to learn he was the former Secretary of State at DEXEU. 

DAVID "DELUDED" DAVIS

David Davis' Sunday Times article is a confection of deluded thinking. There's talk of him becoming interim leader if May is toppled. If so, God help us all. The article itself is HERE behind a paywall but you can find a free copy HERE. As we know he is calling on former cabinet colleagues to rebel against the PM and block the deal that he thinks will lock us in to a semi-permanent customs union with the EU without an end date. At the moment this looks like the only way to avoid a hard border in Ireland. He is also unhappy about a big increase in regulatory checks between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. In short it's the backstop problem.

WHAT DOES PLUS, PLUS, PLUS ACTUALLY MEAN?

Since it appears we are edging towards a Canada style FTA I think attention will soon start to focus on what plus, plus, plus means. Both sides have used this as a sort of shorthand for a few extras, some chrome plated embellishments, but what might they be? David Davis was famous for saying he made no apology for being ambitious and looking to achieve the "exact same benefits" in the future as have now. 

PLAYING CHICKEN WITH THE ECONOMY

There is a warning to the government not to play "chicken" with the British economy (HERE). It comes from Catherine McGuinness, policy chairwoman at the City of London Corporation, but I'm afraid it's far too late. The Conservative party is essentially doing just that. The no deal threat is far more serious for the UK yet Brexiteers persist in using it to put pressure on the EU, daring them to blink first. We know they are not going to blink and it is just making business very nervous, like passengers in a car being driven erratically at high speed by a driver you suspect is not completely rational.

DAVIS AND THE IfG

David Davis is like one of those blokes you meet in the pub occasionally. He can't wait to tell you how good he is.  He sees himself as a titan of the business world.  Everything he ever did was a doddle and to a man of his prodigious talent, things he hasn't yet done would come even easier - if he ever tried. In truth his colleagues probably all thought he was hopeless. Just after the campaign in July 2016 the little twerp told us (HERE) we would have trade deals sorted in no time at all:

DAVIS - THE FORECASTER'S FORECASTER?

David Davis has an article in The Sun on Sunday (HERE) lambasting the chancellor's suggestion that borrowing will be £80 billion a year higher in 15 years time if we leave the EU without a deal. He uses strong language. The forecast is "bogus" and the leaking of the letter on the same day as Raab's speech is "spectacularly incompetent or deliberate".  He seems blissfully unaware that being 2% down already, we are well on the way to shrinking the economy by even more than 8% in 2033, as Hammond said.

RESERVE 'CHUTES FOR ALL - BRACE, BRACE

The Telegraph this morning are leading with a story (HERE) that the cabinet are discussing a "reserve parachute" - a sort of emergency standby deal - in case the Chequers proposal is rejected by the EU27. If I was them I wouldn't worry about IF the Chequers plan is rejected but WHEN. It has zero chance of success. But I do like the analogy of a parachute. This implies we are going down, otherwise it would have been an emergency climbing kit.

DAVIS - IN DREAMLAND

David Davis has written a piece for The Sunday Times (HERE) where he describes the PM's claim that there is no alternative to her Chequers plan as "absolutely dishonest". He then sets out his own plan, which has already been published in sections on the Conservative Home website last week. Anyone who thinks there is dishonesty in knowingly misleading  others will think his alternative plan is also "absolutely dishonest". It suggests things which he must know are just not possible - a practice he has been using on Brexit since 2015. 

DAVIS RESIGNS - Rejoicing!!

At last we remainers have some good news, David Davis, Secretary of State at DEXEU has resigned along with Steve Baker, his  junior minister. I can't remember two more useless ministers ever, and I go back to the early 1960s. I don't know if there's a word to describe what the stage beyond international laughing stock is, but we need one - urgently. This morning a new DEXEU Secretary  will be announced, amid rising calls for the PM herself to go. There is almost certainly going to be a leadership challenge, although I suspect she will win it. Davis' resignation letter is HERE.

DAVIS' EXPECTATIONS ARE WORTHLESS

Now this is all going to sound a bit academic. I like to comment on the government's increasingly unrealistic positions but it's so hard to find the time in between a paper's publication and its dismissal by Michel Barnier, usually less than 24 hours which in diplomatic time is the blink of an eye. However, the technical paper on the "temporary" customs arrangement (HERE) is too good an opportunity to miss.

DAVIS MOCKED

David delivered his speech yesterday at RUSI (Royal United Services Institute) as this humorous item in The Independent explains (HERE). In the speech, where he begged not to be punished, he told the gathered press that: