THE DEMOGRAPHICS ARE IN OUR FAVOUR

Polling continues to reinforce what we already know, that young people, in overwhelming numbers, are not in favour of Brexit. For the under 25s the EU is just as popular as it unpopular for the over 65s, perhaps more so. The difference is stark, as the latest YouGov poll shows:

THE DEMOGRAPHICS

More academic work has been done to try and predict how support for Brexit might change over time due to factors not connected with the negotiations or how good or bad the deal we might end up with is. The factors that this paper (HERE) examines are the rising numbers of people with a degree, the number of ethnic minority voters and the falling number of pro Brexit voters born before 1973.

MORE ON THE DEMOGRAPHICS

UK in a Changing Europe have produced a report to mark the half way point in the Article 50 negotiations and although I haven't read it all, the section on demographics makes fascinating reading because it confirms everything we thought about how Brexit will probably be reversed in a few years time. The report doesn't quite go that far but I think it is the inescapable conclusion. The report, Article 50 One Year On, is HERE and the section on demographics starts on page 35. 

TWO THIRDS OF PEOPLE DO NOT "SUPPORT BREXIT"

YouGov ran a poll recently that Brexiteers have seized upon to show the nation is now pro-Brexit by a two-thirds majority. The Telegraph (HERE) along with The Daily Mail and The Sun gleefully reporting it as two thirds of people “now support Brexit”. But is this really true? 

IS BREXIT OPPOSITION REALLY GROWING?

A little while ago I posted something about the demographics of Brexit (HERE) to the effect that as older pro-leave voters die, new pro-remain voters will join the electorate and sooner or later there will be a majority to remain.  I still hold to this view but The Independent had a report a few days ago (HERE) suggesting opposition to Brexit was at its height. I think the headline was a bit misleading but at the same time also slightly encouraging.