THE NEXT PRIME MINISTER WILL BE TESTED LIKE NO OTHER

If we go back to autumn 2016, just before the Tory Party Conference, Mrs May had been coming under pressure to trigger Article 50.  David Davis himself had written in July on the assumption we would be out by the end of 2018. The grassroots as well as some politicians were becoming restive at the apparent inertia.  Hence she committed to firing the starting gun (HERE) before the end of March 2017. It was probably the maximum time she thought she could give herself to get a plan ready. She eventually managed it with 48 hours to spare. We now know there was no agreed plan or even a realistic objective.  It was this total ignorance in the Tory party about how difficult the process would be which led directly to May pulling the trigger without knowing where we would end up.

THE GOVERNMENT STRATEGY REVEALED

Robert Peston (HERE) has got hold of a leaked memo from someone in government setting out what Mrs May hoped to be able to put to the House of Commons in a series of indicative votes to find out what a majority of MPs would support. There are five points. Two have multiple options that would be narrowed down in a series of votes with the least popular being eliminated until only one option was left.  Since the talks have broken down without an agreement it's not clear what will now happen but the next step was always some sort of parliamentary process so she may still try some more indicative votes.

THE UK'S HARD BARGAINING ANALYSED

As I mentioned yesterday, I stumbled across an academic paper about Brexit and looking at at the negotiating strategy of the UK from a high-level perspective. The title, Cultures of negotiation: Explaining Britain’s hard bargaining in the Brexit negotiations (HERE). Written by two academics for The Dahrendorf Forum, a joint initiative by the Hertie School of Governance, the London School of Economics and Political Science, and Stiftung Mercator,  it covers Britain's stance relative to the EU, something it describes as a 'puzzle'.

ANOTHER CHAOTIC DAY IN PARLIAMENT

Yet another defeat last night for a government that has looked completely rudderless for months but is now holed below the waterline and taking more hits every day. The PM cannot survive much longer surely?  If you watched the debate on Parliament on TV you will know the Tory whips tried to be far too clever and drafted the government motion so that technically it meant leaving the EU on the 29th March was to be rejected, leaving open the prospect of a no-deal Brexit later on.

BREXIT - STILL WAITING FOR A BREAKTHROUGH

There is a strange air of unreality this weekend, with just 20 days to go to Brexit but absolutely no sign of panic anywhere as we head inexorably to what some think would be a catastrophe. It is as if nobody actually believes we are going to leave on March 29th without a deal - and they're right.  May's speech to the puzzled people of Grimsby yesterday has not gone down as well as she hoped - in fact it has been very badly received in Brussels, which was its intended target.

ANOTHER ROLLER COASTER DAY

It was a bit of a roller coaster in the press yesterday. In the morning The Sunday Times had an article by their political editor Tim Shipman (HERE) claiming a softening of the position of the ERG on the backstop: 'Tory Brexiteers offer peace terms to Theresa May'. The 'peace terms' they have set out are in fact tests which they will use to judge if the changes the Attorney General is trying to negotiate in Brussels will be acceptable. This is presented as the arch Brexiteers being 'flexible'. God help us if they were ever to become intransigent.

MAY CHASING DESERT MIRAGES

According to Sky News the PM is now planning to attend an EU-Arab summit in Sharm-el-Sheikh, Egypt, this weekend. She wasn't planning to go before she learned that 20 EU leaders were attending, including Angela Merkel (HERE). I bet when the twenty hear that Theresa May is coming they will find they have a sudden illness or other more urgent appointments.

OLLY ROBBINS - BRUSSELS WALLS HAVE EARS

Olly Robbins, our chief Brexit negotiator, has been overheard by Angus Walker, an ITV reporter, in a late night Brussels hotel bar talking about the negotiations and what he thinks the eventual choice facing MPs will be (HERE). Robbins told his drinking companions he expected parliament to be forced to choose between the prime minister's deal or a long delay to Brexit. The ERG will apparently be offered a poor consolation prize immediately or delayed gratification and the prospect of a better prize later - perhaps much later.

BRITAIN SEEKS HELP FROM DAMP RAG AS CLOCK RUNS DOWN

Theresa May is expected to ask parliament today for another two weeks 'grace' to allow her to continue pressing for changes to the Irish backstop (HERE). She might as well ask for another two decades and it still wouldn't be enough.  What a strange woman she is. On the one hand she refuses to ask for an Article 50 extension as a way of concentrating minds but on the other, she doesn't expect MPs to do the same. And amazingly, they probably won't.

A HUMILIATION AND A SHAMBLES

The epic shambles goes on.  I didn't think the PM's deal would fly and fully expected a serious accident. In fact it blew up on the ground after being hit by missiles from both sides. The scale of last night's 230 vote humiliating defeat was apparently a record in parliamentary history. The BBC (HERE) were suggesting the last big government defeat was against Ramsay MacDonald in the 1920s but that was only by 160 and must now be looked on as almost as good as a victory by comparison.

WE ARE NOT LEAVING THE EU ON MARCH 29th

The current Brexit Secretary, Stephen Barclay, assured the nation on TV last December that the meaningful vote would go ahead. A few hours later the PM decided that it wouldn't. He was assuring us yesterday that the UK will leave the EU on March 29th which means with almost 100% certainty that we will not. Even The Telegraph is coming to that conclusion.

EFTA - ANOTHER OPTION BITES THE DUST

It seems quite certain that Mrs May's deal will be voted down on Tuesday.  Amid the scramble to find an alternative solution, a Plan B to provide an escape from the constitutional quagmire she seems intent on driving us into, Peter (Lord) Mandelson has written a piece for The New European giving eleven reasons why the Norway EFTA/EEA option would be a disaster for Britain (HERE). Mandelson used to be Trade Commissioner for the EU so I assume he knows what he's talking about or he has spoken to people who do. The reasons seem quite plausible to me.

THE PM's BEGGING LETTER

EU leaders agreed the Withdrawal deal and the political declaration in a low key summit in Brussels yesterday. Even before that, Theresa May sent a begging letter to us, the public, published in all the national newspapers and on news outlets on the web. The BBC has it HERE.  Laura Kuenssberg, the BBC's Political Editor says the PM's message is "this is all there is".  In other words it's the best I could get and nobody is going to get anything better.  It's not a very inspiring message is it?  You wouldn't want to see that on the side of a bus would you? 

PLAN 'B' SURFACES

The Telegraph are running an amazing story this morning. It's behind a paywall but you can read it HERE. They claim to have seen a leaked government document with a Plan B involving Britain somehow staying in the EEA. I am not sure there's any truth in the story or even how it might be brought about. The EEA is actually an agreement between EFTA and the EU. 

SPAIN THREATENS TO BLOCK THE DEAL

Spain is playing last minute hard ball over Gibraltar, demanding Article 184 of the WA contain an explicit reference to the fact that negotiations over the Rock are separate to the withdrawal agreement (HERE). They are threatening not to attend the summit in Brussels on Sunday even as Theresa May travels there today for final discussions with Jean Claude Juncker.

 

WE ARE GETTING CLOSER AND CLOSER - TO MEMBERSHIP

Theresa May is off to Brussels for a meeting with Jean Claude Juncker today amid some suggestions it's a bit of choreography to make it look as if her deal has been secured after a serious row. Spain is said to be unhappy about Gibraltar for example (HERE). She is trying to make it all look tough as she works to put the finishing touches to the final and expanded version of the political declaration about the future relationship.  However. I am not sure it's going to help the prime minister. 

THE BIG REVEAL IS COMING - We may soon get to know what Brexit means

In the weeks and months after the referendum there was much speculation about what Brexit actually meant - apart from Brexit that is. Would it be a hard or soft one? It was as if we were talking about a particularly complicated boiled egg. The result of the vote in June was very close and many people were still in shock. Some didn't even think it would actually happen. I naively put my name to the petition for a second vote.  October came, and in her first conference speech as party leader, Theresa May surprised us all:

MAY IS SAVING BREXITEERS FROM THEMSELVES

Negotiations in Brussels on the withdrawal agreement have finished - but are continuing in London. Cabinet Brexiteers are said to be applying a bit of pressure to try and force Theresa May to reopen talks (HERE). They are very unhappy with the joint decision making process that allows the EU to block the UK from exiting the Irish border backstop arrangement. This is the issue that has taken almost a year to resolve and now a solution has been agreed at a technical level, they want to go back and start again! These are cabinet ministers but appear more like petulant children.  I'll resist the temptation to say:  you lost, get over it.

CABINET APPROVE THE DOG'S BREAKFAST

Well, Theresa May managed to get the deal past the cabinet. It took five hours instead of the two hours planned and what she described as an "impassioned" argument - and given the civil service penchant for understatement, I take this as meaning there was mayhem. No resignations so far but the chief political correspondent at The Telegraph tweeted that 11 of 29 ministers spoke out against the deal so nowhere near unanimous support. Also, let us not forget, if the deal had not been agreed yesterday, there would have been the threat of having to start serious no-deal planning with the shock that would spark off.  I suspect this was all part of the PM's plan. Get them to stare into the abyss.

AT LAST WE HAVE A DEAL THAT CAN BE REJECTED!

Well at last it appears a withdrawal agreement has been reached on a technical level (not political) and is being shown to cabinet ministers. An emergency cabinet meeting has been scheduled for tomorrow. Ministers are being invited to No 10 to read the 500 pages but are unable to take a copy away!