The referendum was held at a catastrophically bad time for leavers although they don't realise it yet. Those who were keenest to leave put ideology over everything else. Our economy had suffered a huge blow after the 2008-9 financial crisis along with every other country. We were among the worst hit because of our enormous banking sector with several UK based banks having balance sheets bigger than the whole British economy.
We were borrowing up to 12% of GDP or roughly 25% of government spending. One pound in every four spent by government was borrowed. By every measure we were in a mess. Whatever government was in power would have had to cut spending. Let us not kid ourselves. Austerity, in the current parlance, was and will be the backdrop for a long time. Originally the plan was to balance the books in 2015 but this was then put back to 2020.
The 2016 referendum came at a point when, to the surprise of many, the economy was growing at the fastest rate in the G7 - the seven richest nations - with unemployment at almost a record low, around 4.9%. It doesn't get much better for any economy although people grumbled about pay and lack of security in their jobs. We were at a high point in the so called business cycle and periods of high growth are always interspersed with short slow downs or even negative growth.
So, for leavers the timing of the vote could not have been worse. Austerity is now forecast to continue until the mid 2020s and unemployment will increase simply because it can hardly get lower. Brexit has added to uncertainty and if respected economists, including some at the treasury, are to be believed, we will be permanently worse off. Pressure on public services is rising. People expect good health and social care as well as proper policing and prisons. It is hard to see more money becoming available anytime soon.
Brexiteers, like my own MP, promised us a prosperous future but Brexit has only pushed the good times further out of reach and extended the straitened circumstances we have already suffered for eight years for another eight! By 2025 we will have had sixteen hard years with cuts to services and this is going to be very difficult for any government, let alone one that is ideologically driven by Brexit. I do not believe for a second that the British people have the same patience as the Russians had from 1917 to 1990. We don't have a police state and how much hardship the less committed leavers, the waverers, are prepared to accept will be a concern for Mrs May in the coming years.
Brexiteers have effectively bet the shop on Brexit being a success. But the constant message, in the midst of a worsening economy, that this is the will of the people is going to look pretty thin by 2020.
This is our opportunity. It is up to us to make sure that no persuadable voter is in any doubt about who or what is responsible for the problems we will have to face up to.
