BREXIT - A FIASCO IN THE MAKING

Governments are usually extraordinarily bad at managing big projects. Invariably, and I use the word very carefully, projects take longer and cost more than forecast and often fail to reach the objectives they were designed for. Our recent history in the UK is full of abandoned projects (from airborne early warning planes to the NHS computer fiasco) or ones that were delivered late with enormous cost overruns. So what chance does Brexit stand?

It is said to be the project to end all projects. Brexit has been compared either to the moon landings (by David Davis himself, not known for exaggerating or indeed recognising problems even when they are explained to him) or sometimes to the Second World War. In fact it is beginning to look like trying to accomplish both of these at once, with the entire undertaking being managed by a sort of cabinet of Dad's Army characters, veering between swaggering and totally unwarranted optimism and outright panic. It has a hard time limit too.

The chances of it being carried out smoothly without a hitch are somewhere below zero. There will be problems and these could range from the minor like the economy taking a bit of a knock and people or goods delayed a little at the border to utter disaster including food shortages and airline flights and holidays being disrupted for months.

To reinforce the impression of chaos surrounding the cabinet note the contradiction in the Home Secretary writing that there will be a transition period for the new immigration policy after we leave in March 2019 and on the same day the Immigration minister Brandon Lewis ( a man I have actually met) announcing unequivocally freedom of movement will end in March 2019!  (HERE).