The YouGov polls at whatukthinks.org continue to be taken with two more to add in July (HERE). One takes us back to where we were at the beginning of the year (45% thought the decision to leave was right, 43% wrong) but the last one again puts opinion neck and neck at 43%. This means that out of the last six polls (since 31st May) people thought the decision to leave was right just once, it was even on two occasions and wrong on three occasions. Perhaps we are seeing a turning in the tide?
In this context, I came across this by Professor John Curtice from July 2016 about polls asking if voters thought they made the right choice:
The first point that should be stressed is that most voters are content with the choice that they made. According to BMG 91% of those who voted say ‘I am glad to have voted the way I did and have no regrets’. Survation find that 94% do not regret their choice. Meanwhile, Opinium report that 95% feel that they ‘completely’ or ‘mostly’ made the right choice. Buyers’ remorse is not widespread.
However, within that broad picture there are signs that Leave voters may be more prone to doubt about how they cast their vote than Remain supporters. Survation found that while 4% of Remain voters regret their choice, 7% of Leave voters do so. According to Opinium, only 3% of Remain voters do not feel they made the right decision, whereas 7% of Leave voters reckon they may not have done so.
Indeed, Leave voters are also more likely to go so far as to say that they would now vote differently from the way they did on June 23rd. BMG find that while just 2% of those who voted for Remain say they would vote to Leave if a second referendum were to be held, 5% of Leave voters state they would switch in the opposite direction. Opinium’s estimates are similar at 2% and 6% respectively. Likewise, Ipsos MORI find that while 2% of Remain voters say they would now ‘probably’ or ‘definitely’ vote differently, 5% of Leave voters feel that way.
Note it was the leavers a year ago who were more likely to have doubts and given what has happened since and the way the government is managing Brexit this is unlikely to have reduced and more likely to have increased in my opinion.
