David Davis had a piece in The Sunday Times yesterday (HERE). He is pressing for the EU to begin negotiations on trade and says the early negotiations have demonstrated there are many questions around our withdrawal that are "inextricably linked to our future relationship". I think with regard to the Irish border this is probably true but definitely not with the financial settlement or citizen's rights, on which little or no progress has been made.
I think the EU are entitled to think, if what Davis says is true, all the more reason for the UK to make sure the financial settlement and citizen's rights are dealt with quickly - but we have dragged our feet for months and on the money side, deliberately so. Even now we do not seem to be preparing a position paper on the so called Brexit bill, something the EU have been asking about for months. Although I note the government is being deliberately vague about what the five new position papers expected this week are about. Davis himself says they are (1) confidentiality of official paper (2) documents and goods already on the market (3) governance of our new partnership and (4) data sharing. What is the fifth? We wait to see. The government is coy about it. Could it be an offer?
In his article Davis says "it is our long term aim that ultimately many of these separation issues will not be necessary. We are seeking an ambitious trade deal which provides for as tariff free and barrier free trade as possible," which is as clear an indication as you could wish for that we want to cherry pick, something the EU says we cannot do.
Richard North who blogs about Brexit has written a piece about the article (HERE). It is as if David Davis has suddenly woken up, looked at the clock and noted for the first time that it's ticking down with 584 days to go. The EU do not look as if they're in any great hurry. We have a lot to lose. Let us see who blinks first.
In the article Davis is effectively making another attempt to force (see HERE) the EU to begin trade negotiations before a settlement is reached on the three first phase issues, something they insist cannot happen until "sufficient progress" has been made. He warns that the clock is ticking as if it was the EU rather than him that should be worried.
The Slovenian prime minister Miro Cerar said in an interview for The Guardian (HERE) at the weekend that in his opinion progress is not going to be made before the end of the year and that two years is not long enough for the process anyway. It seems every time Davis says anything someone actually in possession of some facts contadicts him.
The government, particularly the Brexiteers in it, have made a rod for their own back by not being straight with the British people about the difficulties involved. Since the referendum they have talked about the EU needing us more than we need them. Mrs May in her Lancaster House speech set out red lines on money, the ECJ and her determination for "frictionless trade". Davis talked of a deal that would provide "the exact same benefits" as we have now. In doing so they have created an expectation - one that was and is impossible to deliver.
We are now coming to the denouement where the EU (not the UK) will pull the different conflicting strands together, explain that we cannot enjoy what we had before and offer us a poor deal we can't afford to refuse. This will spark a furious reaction on the right and Davis, May and others are going to find it difficult to argue against the very unreasonable expectations they themselves have raised! This is going to cost a few political careers.
British industry and banking will be looking on in horror while this is going on. Brexiteers in the Conservative party are using brinkmanship with the entire British economy and the well being of the people at stake.
