The authors of the LSE study have explained that the figures at the bottom of each bar chart are not percentages of people but their relative approval for the policy. A figure of 50% indicates a neutral position while anything above shows increasing support and anything below shows increasing disapproval. To be fair to Buzzfeed this is what their report said but it wasn't obvious (not least to me!). However, I'm not sure it takes us any further forward.
People were asked to consider, not whether leaving the EU was right or wrong, on this we are still quite evenly divided, but on their relative preference for different scenarios. YouGov have already published several studies showing that many remainers accept the referendum result and are prepared to support the government in getting some sort of deal. They are now the reluctant leavers who voted to remain.
But for me this does not explain all the results. The Irish border question is still puzzling with all scenarios mainly indicating a lot of indifference with none getting strong approval or strong disapproval. People also seemed indifferent to the single market scenarios with virtually all the results coming between 45% and 55% (50% being neutral). Considering the huge impact these things are likely to have this is surprising. The scenario: Many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 5% average tariff on goods which would devastate trade with a huge impact on jobs and even whole industries was on 47% of leavers and 44% of remainers, indicating they were only mildly against it. The important fact to remember is that this does not make it right.
I think two conclusions come out of it.
1. Leave voters have far more entrenched views about the EU - even when they are clearly wrong.
2. Neither leave nor remain voters really understand the implications of the choices they made.
I still believe, as the study authors make clear in the Buzzfeed story, there is no firm evidence that remain or leave voters are changing their mind - yet. But as the economy slows and public finances suffer as I think it will, and if the pound falls below parity with the Euro as some forecast (HERE) we will see some change in public opinion.
Update: A more complete explanation of the poll is given HERE.
Wiser heads in government know that Brexit will be damaging and even if a majority want it in return for gaining nothing they have a duty to try and mitigate it. David Davis has the bigger problems. In the long run there will be no benefits, no great turn around in our economic fortunes, quite the opposite in fact and we will still be abiding by EU rules anyway.
