WhatUKthinks have added another YouGov poll taken on 22nd August to their tracker (HERE) asking if the Vote to leave the EU was right or wrong. It shows 45% now think it was WRONG while only 43% think it was RIGHT. I think (perhaps optimistically!) a pattern is emerging and a shift in opinion is beginning to happen.
YouGov show the "don't knows" which makes it a bit difficult to compare with the actual referendum result where don't know was not an option - although perhaps it should have been and we might not now be in the pickle we are. If I remove the don't knows and recalculate the figures the August 22nd poll would in theory have resulted in a remain victory of 51.14% to 48.86%. Of course, on it's own this means nothing but looking at the entire series of 41 polls we can perhaps begin to see signs of a shift.
Up until April 19th 2017 there were 26 polls, all asking exactly the same question. In only one (November 29th 2016) was WRONG in the lead. In three others it was a tie. So, in 22 out of the 26 polls RIGHT held the lead and if I average the results up to that point I arrive at 51.29% RIGHT and 48.71% WRONG, close to the actual result on June 23rd - 51.9% Leave to 48.1% Remain with only a very slight narrowing.
But after April 19th things began to change. The average of the 15 polls since then was almost equal 50.27% RIGHT and 49.73% WRONG. And out of the last 8 polls RIGHT was only in front once (July 11th) and it was a tie on three occasions. WRONG was in front four times. The average of these last eight polls was 49.79% RIGHT and 50.21% WRONG.
Are we really seeing a shift? I don't know for sure but what I think we can say is that there is no reinforcing of the decision to leave and if anything a slight weakening of the leave sentiment that drove the disastrous result. And we are not seeing any really significant adverse impacts of Brexit in the economy - yet, just a little bit of inflation and a slowing of growth and business investment. If things start to go seriously downhill I think the polling will start to become much clearer.
If we eventually do have another referendum and the result is to remain or rejoin the EU, those who still believe we should be out will not be able to argue the subject has not been properly aired. We have thought of little else for the last fourteen months and there is only the prospect of more intense debate and interest in the months and years to come. No one in the country will be able to say voters were not aware of the details, we will all be experts. What will Michael Gove say to that?
