A new poll carried out for the LSE seems to suggest a sizeable majority want a hard Brexit. The results are not being officially published until later this year but have been given to Buzzfeed. The Telegraph, on the basis of Buzzfeed's report, now claims that a majority of remain voters favour taking back control of our borders, leaving the ECJ and paying nothing of the Brexit bill (HERE). I think this poll actually demonstrates how little people understand Brexit even now. The full report from Buzzfeed is HERE.
Opinion on post Brexit trade with the EU indicates a majority of both leavers and remainers want "few administrative barriers to trade in services and no tariffs in goods" which is what we have now! But stunningly, almost half of both (44% and 47%) would accept "many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 5% average tariff on goods", an outcome that would seriously damage our economy.
The Irish border question is perhaps the most surprising. The possible choices are between no passport and no border checks (the status quo) to full passport and full border checks. The results were all close to 50% for both leavers and remainers - all somewhere between 46% and 53% so within the margin of error.
On the ECJ almost 50% of remainers thought we should not be subject to EU law or decisions of the ECJ! The scenario in the poll allowed for this outcome but half of people who voted FOR it in the referendum are now AGAINST it. This does not make sense. About 37% of leave voters thought we SHOULD be subject to all EU law and ECJ decisions, which is perhaps even more surprising.
I really don't think the result would have been much different if respondents had tossed coins to determine their answers. It is as if the "don't knows" have been forced to make a decision and we have what one might expect - completely random results clustered around a central position.
Did any of the respondents truly understand the implications of what they were a bit asked? I don't believe they did.
Finally the work is waiting to be peer reviewed which is, I believe, extremely unusual for a poll. This to me shows how unusual the method used is. We should probably wait until this has been done. I note the BBC has not yet covered the story. And no doubt some expert sephologist will blog about it in the next few days.
I still believe the YouGov polls asking if the vote to leave was right or wrong gets closer to the national mood. It's a simple question that anyone can understand. When the economy takes a hit we will see what happens to public opinion.
