I am not an economist and economics can be a bit of a pseudo science at the best of times, full of assumptions, technical jargon and mumbo jumbo. There is often serious disagreement. It is said if you put ten economists in a room together you would end up with eleven opinions. So, in the Brexit debate there has been a surprising degree of unanimity. I think at least 95% of them believe Brexit, to a greater or lesser degree, will be bad for the economy but this leaves a tiny minority who think the opposite.
The most famous among them is Patrick Minford, professor of Applied Economics at Cardiff University, who has followed up the IEA report (HERE), written by one of his Economists for Brexit colleagues, Kevin Dowd, with news that he is bringing out a report later this year showing we will be £135 billion better off annually after Brexit. The BBC reported it HERE. Understandably it got a big reaction in spite of there being no facts or figures provided explaining where the money would come from except that it would be by "free trade". Minford has a lot of form on this.
In April 2016 he wrote an Article for The Sun (HERE, and that should give you some idea of his level) telling the nation that leaving the EU would boost our economy although in the article - and printed in italics - he admitted:
"Over time, if we left the EU, it seems likely that we would mostly eliminate manufacturing, leaving mainly industries such as design, marketing and hi-tech. But this shouldn’t scare us."
This was all based on unilaterally doing away with tariff and non tariff barriers of all kinds and simply buying whatever we need for wherever we want at world prices. This would no doubt make people better off, at least those with a job. The two or three million in farming and manufacturing may not be among those enjoying a higher standard of living but to professor Minford that "shouldn't scare us". Most economists condemned the thinking and one, Richard North, wrote a blog (HERE) describing it as wilful stupidity,
"Over time, if we left the EU, it seems likely that we would mostly eliminate manufacturing, leaving mainly industries such as design, marketing and hi-tech. But this shouldn’t scare us."
This was all based on unilaterally doing away with tariff and non tariff barriers of all kinds and simply buying whatever we need for wherever we want at world prices. This would no doubt make people better off, at least those with a job. The two or three million in farming and manufacturing may not be among those enjoying a higher standard of living but to professor Minford that "shouldn't scare us". Most economists condemned the thinking and one, Richard North, wrote a blog (HERE) describing it as wilful stupidity,
Minford is now working on more of the same. Ben Chu in The Independent (HERE) questions why the BBC gave it prominence since there was no report available and no new evidence which could be challenged on something that has already been widely discredited. The Huffington Post (HERE) and the LSE Blogs (HERE) also take time to condemn the professor's latest offering to lunacy.
In August 2016 Minford wrote in The Telegraph (HERE) that we should just walk away from the EU without a deal and, talking about growth after the referendum result he said, "the second quarter [of 2016] has in fact shown a 50 per cent rise in growth on the first quarter". Note however, that now growth so far in 2017, after the triggering of Article 50, has shown a 50% + fall he says nothing about it.
Richard North's blog (always a good source of credible evidence against Minford) quotes another Brexiteer Matt Ridley (HERE) who said that, "outside the EU, Britain could buy what it needs more cheaply and sell what it's good at making". This gets to the heart of the problem for me. We are unfortunately not good at making anything - this is why most of our manufacturing industry is foreign owned. It is not in my opinion too much to believe that if we were good at making things Brexit would not be necessary and would never have happened.
After Brexit we are going to find out if we can become good, if not we are in big trouble.
