The third round of talks ends today and already the acrimony has started with both sides blaming the other for a lack of progress (HERE). A press conference is due later in Brussels and no doubt we will get a slightly more diplomatic version of acrimony but the message will be the same, there is not enough progress. It is notable that earlier this week (HERE) there was talk of circumventing the Commission and M Barnier and going directly to members of the European Council, Germany and France in particular.
I note today, in the morning newspapers the tone has changed. The Independent (HERE) says, "British officials believe that the mandate given to Mr Barnier has prevented him having sufficient space to negotiate progress, in particular robbing him of the ability to move on to future trade relations, before separation issues like the divorce bill, citizens’ rights, and the Northern Ireland border are addressed."
No longer are we intending to go over the head of M Barnier but we are sympathising that the guidelines he has been given are too rigid. Well, the guidleines were given to him by the people we were planning to appeal over his head to a few days ago!
The press conference has just ended (see the BBC report HERE). The tone was not good and even slightly testy. Barnier said there had 'no decisive progress' on the three key issues. Davis looked tired and frazzled while Barnier seemed relaxed and fresh. Davis thought there had been 'concrete progress'.
Barnier said he had looked at the UK's position papers and had noted a certain 'nostalgia' for the single market and he also commented that some of our demands about the single market were 'impossible'. It is doubtful that there will be the "sufficient progress" by the October meeting of the European Council for the talks to move on to trade issues - unless that is we back down and produce a paper on the financial settlement.
Another forecast from me. The talks are going to become more acrimonious not less. Our side is claiming the EU negotiators are "incapable" of flexibility (HERE) and no doubt this is true. But it is not just because of the tight mandate they have been given, it is also surely a simple recognition of the facts. They are in the strongest position.
We NEED tariff free access to the EU market, they would only LIKE tariff free access to ours.
THEY are in a position to grant a transitional period, we are NOT.
No deal would be DIFFICULT for them but a CATASTROPHE for us.
We are slowly learning what it is going to be like for a UK outside the EU. Whilst a member we thought our influence came from us and the EU was a burden on the UK, that other countries would be desperate to deal with us. It turns out that being in the EU was a source of power and influence that we will no longer enjoy. As a small nation we had better get used to being pushed around. The Brexit negotiations will stand us in good stead.
