A report in The Guardian (HERE) claims there is a sense of frustration in the EU at the lack of progress in the negotiations and BoJo's article on Friday can only have added to it. Some think we're headed for the rocks and that the internal Conservative party argument on Europe is still going on. The fact that there is talk of the negotiations being "stalled" is a surprise since they've barely got underway. It does not bode well - for leavers.
I wonder if we will look back in a year's time and see this is the beginning of the end of Brexit.
Putting leavers in charge of the negotiations was a masterstroke. Still arguing, even amongst themselves at the very highest reaches of government, as Boris' article in The Telegraph shows (HERE) and with an unshakeable faith that we really are somehow quite exceptional with a right to be treated as a unique case, Brexiteers are putting the whole project at risk by their own stubbornness. Arguing over the Brexit bill is like haggling over the taxi fare when your child needs urgent hospital attention and has just minutes to live. It is stupid.
In my own mind Brexit is never going to succeed. The worst scenario for remainers is that the EU folds and gives the government what it demands, effectively all the benefits of membership in trade but with none of the downsides. If this was to happen Brexit could go on for years as we suffer a slow decline and falling standards of living. We will one day rejoin but it could take ten years or more.
Brexiteers are putting even this scenario at risk. To show we can be successful they need a period outside the EU but if the negotiations continue as they are, Brexit will not happen at all. At some point business, already nervous of the outcome and with time running out, will start to act. If Nissan or Toyota announced they are moving operations into the EU or banks start to move large numbers of staff to Frankfurt or Paris this would really drive home the potential economic damage. If this happens before the end of next year, coupled with more bad economic news expect public opinion to change quickly. John Curtice the sephologist has said recently that if there has been any change in public opinion it is towards remain and I think this is true (HERE).
It must be in the best interests of Brexiteers to keep things sweet for as long as possible, to smooth over any difficulties and to hide the reality of Brexit until it's too late. But they seem incapable of doing it. Any and every opportunity is taken to rub up the EU the wrong way, to throw sand in the works or make unreasonable demands. As for planning there appears to be none at all, not even contingency plans to handle the increased customs procedures at points of entry or recruit more border officials (HERE). There is nothing going on. It must be hubris on their part to believe Mrs Merkel is going to step in and conceded everything at the last minute with Davis returning from Berlin smiling broadly and carrying a comprehensive no cost trade agreement guaranteeing frictionless access to the single market. This will never happen.
Brexiteers ought to be managing expectations and explaining where and why we need to compromise. Showing that in reality we may get poorer for a while and offering an olive branch to remainers. But they are doing none of this.
Instead they're upping the ante, demanding more for less. Mrs May's speech next week is thought to contain an offer of money as a compromise and a way to get trade talks going but it wouldn't surprise me to see this rejected by the EU. They always had the best hand and will be in no hurry to play it until the stakes are high enough. The weakness in our position will soon be exposed and this is the last thing Brexiteers want but they are doing their level best to get it.
