Monday 11 September 2017

MORE LEGAL HEADACHES FOR MAY

There are two more Brexit related legal cases coming along that could have a significant impact on the government in the coming weeks. A crowd funded legal challenged is being launched against the government's deal with the DUP (HERE). A group of Green activists have brought the case which they claim breaches the Good Friday agreement and the 2010 Bribery Act.

This case is due to be heard in the Divisional Court in London in the next few weeks. I don't expect this to bring the government down but it would be a major embarrassment to Mrs May and the DUP.

The other case concerns CETA, the trade deal that is due to come into effect shortly between Canada and the EU and which had been mooted as a template for a UK/EU deal. Liam Fox thinks this will be one of the "easiest" in history. The French are challenging the agreement's health and environmental impact and Belgium is unhappy with the dispute settlement mechanism for the investment aspect of the agreement (HERE). The case is being heard in the ECJ.

Brexiteers will say the second case is an example of how difficult it is to negotiate with the EU and why we should be leaving. But let's not forget the EU will still be our largest trading partner by a very long way and the agreement we are seeking will have to be deeper than CETA, especially with regard to financial and other services.

Davis, Fox and Johnson, clever men all, but they have never been involved in negotiations anything like our withdrawal from the EU and wouldn't recognise a trade deal if it reversed into them. What chance do we stand?  Oh well, 563 days to go.