This report HERE suggests, and I'm sure correctly, that the prime minister has agreed to the EU's proposed sequence of talks for next year with a transition deal first and talks on a framework for future trade later. This probably means sometime in March.
It is also certain, although the newspapers don't yet seem to understand, that there will be no trade agreement ready to be signed on March 30th 2019. Barnier has ruled this out (HERE) and confirmed the best we can expect is a "political declaration", not a legally binding trade deal.
So, it looks almost certain that next year will play out as follows:
Firstly, a legally binding text on what was agreed last week will be produced as soon as possible. This is just the initial part of phase I. Talks will then continue to conclude the phase 1 issues but a solution to the Irish border problem will not be included.
Next will be a start to discussions on a transition period to be concluded in legally binding terms. This needs to be done by March at the very latest. Without it, many companies will begin to initiate relocation plans. I think this will mean the UK simply accepting the status quo with no representation in any EU bodies. This will cause an almighty row in the Tory party and render Liam Fox's department useless for another two years at least. I assume this will result in some sort of treaty.
In March discussions will start on a framework agreement - provided we know what we want by then. The withdrawal agreement needs to be finalised by about September/October in order to allow time for the EU parliament and national parliaments to approve it. This will be by qualified majority voting.
In spite of reassurances Mrs May has given to Brexiteers that March 2019 will be the start of an "implementation" period and that trade talks will not continue, it seems more than likely - if not an absolute certainty - that we will be talking about the details of a trade agreement well into and probably beyond the two years. The "implementation" period will almost certainly have to be extended, and throughout the period the intractable Irish border problem will come up again and again. One day it will have to be faced.
