Monday, 15 January 2018

THE BREXIT PLAN THAT WASN'T

Farage and BoJo (and others probably) are beginning to get worried that Brexit might be lost. Farage complains that remainers are "making all the running" and we know he thinks a second referendum may be needed. BoJo writing in The Sun (!) says Brexit is far from certain and a big fight remains.

The problem for Brexiteers is coming to a head. Before the vote Dominic Cummings, Campaign Director at Vote Leave, made the specific decision not to have a plan for post Brexit. One might say the post Brexit strategy that allowed them to win was not to have a strategy at all. Cummings thought that developing such a plan was "insuperable" before the campaign and so it has proved afterwards.

Now they complain that the remain side are unfairly developing a strategy to stay in the single market and the customs union. You couldn't make it up.

Of course the absence of a plan for Brexit is rather like a political party going into an election without a manifesto, allowing activists to tell voters whatever each voter wanted to hear. In that sense there wasn't a vacuum but a space filled with many plans, even 17 million of them. Having won they have been completely unable to coalesce around one plan, to the frustration and irritation of Brussels.

Time is running out. In the next few months the government is going to have to come up with a "framework" for the future relationship with the EU. 

Cummings was right. A plan to unite the leave side probably is insuperable. Had they tried before the referendum they wouldn't have won, so they didn't even try to present one. Having got the result they wanted, the leave side are now scrabbling around for that elusive and unifying plan. What they did is convince people that they had a method of controlling gravity (Brexit). Now they have been awarded the contract and on March 29th 2019 they are going to have to demonstrate to the British people that they have a working model. Don't hold your breath.

The lack of a plan won them the battle, but it will lose them the war.