The insoluble Irish border problem is coming back to haunt the government. There is still a strange belief that some sort of magical solution will be conjured up by David Davis' department. Richard Tice of Leave means Leave, on Friday claimed there was a report of some kind in the EU Parliament confirming a technology based solution was possible. Needless to say he didn't elaborate. This mysterious solution is a bit like the alien said to have been found in Area 51. A lot of people think it exists no matter how many experts say it doesn't.
Tice is like many people, particularly on Brexit, he doesn't want to know the details, he only wants somebody to tell him the problem has been solved. It hasn't and it won't.
The border is beginning to develop into a serious problem. The proposed EU legal text will include a commitment that Northern Ireland will automatically and effectively remain in the EU at the end of the transition period unless some new solution is found to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland. There will apparently be a sunset clause that will mean the Irish border article will automatically lapse when and if a new solution comes in to force. This is according to this report in The Guardian HERE.
There is a lengthy article in The Telegraph (HERE) suggesting the Canada/US border could be a model. It claims David Davis has visited it to "see" for himself. The need is for an "invisible" border so we might have guessed there's a bit of a problem straightaway if you can actually see it. The article is an attempt to be helpful but explains how trucks are scanned and customs officers process consignments. All we need are Harry Potter invisibility cloaks and Bob's your uncle.
Unfortunately, Leo Varadkar, the Irish PM, has also visited the Canadian border and dismissed it so this is a bit of a problem since the Irish and the EU would be controlling the other side. Mr Varadkar tweeted (HERE) after his visit, that it is very high tech -"but make no mistake - it's a hard border". The Telegraph article glosses over the fact that physical infrastructure is needed and that Ireland has a land border not a bridge as in the Canadian model. It does describe the USA as the 900lb gorilla when it comes to harmonising regulations but at least they are trying to harmonise them, we are doing the opposite.
Apparently the Americans just announce their position and tell Canada to adapt to it, which they do. We shouldn't overlook the EU's penchant for regulations, not out of a desire to be difficult, but rather that it is not a state but a federation of 28 states.
The Norway/Sweden border is another idea that Brexiteers cling to but this article HERE on the Irish Border Blog explains why it wouldn't work in Ireland. And the LSE wrote a paper on it setting out the problems (HERE). There is a more sober look at the Norway/Sweden border (HERE) on the Politico website.
When all the options have been examined and discarded as unworkable, we will be left with regulatory alignment - at a minimum in the six areas set out in the 1998 Good Friday agreement. These are energy, education, health, agriculture, tourism and the environment
Breugel is an independent European think tank and they have an easy to understand description of the difficulties HERE. If we are outside the customs union there will be a hard border and while infrastructure on such a border can be minimised, it can never be invisible. This is the problem. Electronic filing of goods and pre clearance is OK if you assume that no one will ever try to smuggle stuff across the border and that every trader will abide by the rules. And if we leave the single market there will also be rules of origin and regulatory compliance issues.
Even if you only check a small sample of goods crossing the border, infrastructure will be needed and border officials will need to staff it.
In other words there will be a hard border and there are around 300 crossing points.
