The so called leaked report on the economic impact of Brexit has been seen by MPs and unsurprisingly more figures have been leaked. This morning the focus is on the regional impact. The areas that voted leave most decisively will suffer the most harm, whilst London will suffer the least. The North East, West Midlands and Northern Ireland will be worst hit. The Independent HERE says:
"The North-east would take an 11 per cent hit to economic growth under the Government’s preferred outcome of a free trade deal with the EU, while leaving with no deal will result in a 16 per cent dip, and staying in the single market would cause a 3 per cent decline".
Similar declines were forecast for the West Midlands (8, 13 and 2.5%) and Northern Ireland (8, 12 and 2.5%). Sky News' take on it is HERE.
And yesterday there was a debate in Westminster Hall (HERE) about Brexit and the EFTA/EEA option. This is the softest Brexit possible but would still cause significant damage to the UK economy. However, it would keep us close to the EU. Crucially, if immigration threatened to get out of hand, under Articles 112 and 113 of the EEA agreement we could suspend freedom of movement rules. Needless to say, Robin Walker, a DEXEU minister, ruled this option out.
However, the government and the hard-line Brexiteers have a problem. The leaked report's gloomy economic outlook is now in the public domain. It can't be made secret now. If the government produces a new rosy forecast nobody will believe it (well some people like IDS, Jacob Rees-Mogg and so on will) and it's doubtful the Treasury will endorse it anyway. And secondly, if they go ahead with a hard Brexit and the forecasts are anywhere near correct or an underestimate they will look utterly stupid.
Gordon Brown, the last Labour PM, suffered under the financial crash but at least he could defend himself that nobody saw it coming. Brexit is not like that. The government was told repeatedly before and after the vote by every International body (the IMF, OECD, etc) as well as the Treasury and numerous independent think tanks and economic organisations here that Brexit would damage the economy. They will not be able to say we didn't know and nobody else did either.
Meanwhile, The Telegraph (HERE) is reporting that George Soros is donating £400,000 to Open Britain to fund a campaign hoping to persuade people to remain in the EU. They call it a "secret plot" to "thwart" Brexit. They never seemed to cover the secret plot being investigated by the Information Commissioner's Office to thwart rules on spending by the Vote Leave campaign, or the apparent Russian connection , or the secret £435,000 spent by the DUP, or the social media manipulation by the shady Canadian company AggregateIQ and Cambridge Analytica, owned by the American billionaire Robert Mercer. Strange that.
And to get some idea of the mess we're in, the CBI, the employers organisation with 190,000 member companies, has to resort to issuing pamphlets (HERE) setting out the "facts" about the customs union. This is telling for two reasons. Firstly, we don't get "facts" any more from government, even their own MPs challenge any "facts" issued by government departments. And secondly, after eighteen months of thinking we don't know where we're headed and the UK's leading business lobby is still trying to persuade ministers not to take us over a metaphorical economic cliff.
And to get some idea of the mess we're in, the CBI, the employers organisation with 190,000 member companies, has to resort to issuing pamphlets (HERE) setting out the "facts" about the customs union. This is telling for two reasons. Firstly, we don't get "facts" any more from government, even their own MPs challenge any "facts" issued by government departments. And secondly, after eighteen months of thinking we don't know where we're headed and the UK's leading business lobby is still trying to persuade ministers not to take us over a metaphorical economic cliff.
