Interesting analysis of the current polling data by the head of YouGov, Peter Kellner, in Prospect magazine (HERE). It does not read well for the Conservatives. Kellner claims the figures show that while there may only have been a small shift to remain in the totals there is considerable change, particularly in Labour leave voters who are switching to remain in significant numbers - up to 28% in fact. And while there are remain voters who would now vote leave (stunning this one, isn't it?) the overall change is enought to swing the result of a new referendum into a narrow win for remain.
The poll was of around 23,000 people who voted in 2016 and YouGov have tracked them so they know exactly how they voted originally, which apparently makes the figures more dependable.
What this reinforces is the fact that the country is definitely NOT getting behind Brexit. This is the quandary for the Tories. They are ploughing onwards with a policy that is increasingly unpopular. They are going down with the wreck and they probably know there is nothing they can do about it.
In the article (towards the end) Kellner says:
Since the referendum around 1.2m electors have died, while 1.4m have joined the electorate. If we extrapolate from YouGov’s data from the youngest and oldest voters, and take account of variations in turnout by age, then I reckon that around 600,000 Leave voters, and 300,000 Remain voters have died; while 650,000 young Remainers and 150,000 Leave supporters have joined the voting population. Combine these figures, and these demographic factors have given us 350,000 extra Remain voters and 450,000 fewer Leave voters.
In the 2016 referendum, the 17.4m Leave voters outnumbered the 16.1m Remain voters by 1.3m. Demography has already reduced that lead by more than half. At this rate, Remain will take the lead by late next year, even if not one person changes their mind. Add in the second thoughts now apparent in some groups who voted Leave two years ago, there is a real prospect that a fresh referendum would reverse the decision that the electorate took last time.
I calculated this with slightly different numbers in March 2017 (HERE) but concluded by 2020 Remain would start to take the lead. Kellner says this point will occur late in 2019.
