Lord Ashcroft has been doing some polling (HERE) and not surprisingly finds the majority of leave voters think Brexit is taking too long. The letter to The Selby Times last week shows one leaver becoming quite frustrated at the slow progress. This is not going to get any better, with reports that the EU are looking at what happens if the Article 50 discussions have to be extended beyond March 29th (HERE). Even if the withdrawal agreement is concluded on time, something that looks increasingly unlikely to me, there is still the transition period during which the trade agreement will continue to be hammered out.
And until the terms of trade are finalised, we won't know what customs infrastructure and staffing are needed at all our ports and entry points for EU goods. Brexiteers seem to think trade will continue as it does today but this is unthinkable if we leave the single market and the customs union. Trade cannot be frictionless as it is now but we see no sign of the government planning for extra border staff or infrastructure to allow more EU loads to be checked in the same way as non EU loads. There are plenty of experts who believe it will take years to finalise a trade deal with the EU so it would come as no surprise to see the need for an even longer transition period and therefore even slower progress. Leavers are going to be mightily frustrated by the end and more uncertainty will do nothing for business confidence.
However, perhaps more importantly Ashcroft's polling found a majority of voters would prefer to ditch Northern Ireland rather than see Brexit blocked. Leaving the EU is so important to these voters they're prepared to see the United Kingdom broken up rather than remain in the EU. I find this shocking personally but I just wonder how people in Northern Ireland view it?
The poll found 49% of NI voters wanted to remain as part of the UK while 44% wanted a united Ireland. A bit close isn't it? And note this is before the 49% who prefer to stay with Great Britain learned that 63% of voters here prefer to leave the EU even if it means breaking up the UK and dumping Northern Ireland. Must make Irish Unionists feel really wanted! I wouldn't mind betting there is a majority for unification already.
Brexit is a gift to the SNP and to Sinn Fein. It's just a matter of time before the United Kingdom is just England and Wales.
