Saturday 2 June 2018

PLAN? I THOUGHT YOU HAD ONE?

Even by the standards of this government the last 24 hours have been exceptional as far as the post Brexit Irish border is concerned. Max Fac 2 was leaked in the morning by The Sun, courtesy of Tom Newton-Dunn (HERE), denied by No 10 Downing Street at lunchtime (HERE) and scuppered by the DUP before tea time (HERE).  Talk about a flash in the pan.

I now understand The Times are reporting it was never a "plan" anyway. The laughable part is in the original story the "radical blueprint" (so it wasn't a plan?) with a "special economic zone" which would have been "useful for dairy farmers", was presented with a detailed map and in enthusiastically breathless terms as if it was the holy grail.  This morning it is just a few shattered fragments and all but forgotten.

If it told us anything, it was that, "Mr Davis ordered it [the blue print] after he was persuaded to abandon a technology based solution to keep the Irish border open". So, if that part of the story is to be believed even Max Fac 1 is dead.

This morning The Mail (HERE) is reporting the other option, the so-called "cretinous" customs partnership has been quietly dropped  because "almost no work has been done on the plan, with Government efforts focused on an alternative [Max Fac 1] favoured by Cabinet Brexiteers".

If you can keep up with these developments (and keep a straight face) you might note that the position can be summarised, thus:

Max Fac 1 - abandoned as a "technology based solution"
Max Fac 2 - a radical blue print scuppered by the PM and the DUP and never a plan anyway
Customs Partnership - "quietly dropped" because no work has been done on it.

Is it any wonder that the Irish Times (HERE) are reporting this morning that Simon Coveney, the Irish Foreign Minister says Mrs May has two weeks to come up with written proposals to solve the border conundrum. A senior Irish government source is quoted as saying, "We are at legal text stage. We need legal texts to draft and debate.”

This is where the nation that prides itself on pragmatic government finds itself. The Brexiteers after years of thinking about the problem are two weeks short of the deadline, with the clock rapidly running down, without a plan of any kind and the partners with whom we're negotiating demanding legal texts.

It's a good job David Davis doesn't work to artificial deadlines otherwise he might be a bit worried.

When the whole rotten shambles comes tumbling down, as it surely will at some point, let us hope that Davis gets everything he deserves - and he deserves a lot.

Incidentally, on another blog, someone kindly posted a link to a BBC reality check (HERE) which our national broadcaster put on line on June 7th 2016.

It concerned the Irish border. The Reality Check verdict was: It's hard to predict what would happen to the border between the two countries at this stage. It would depend on the type of agreements the UK negotiates.

The item provides links to statements by Theresa Villiers, then Northern Ireland Secretary, and Boris Johnson to the effect that nothing about the border would change if we voted to leave the EU.

And of course this was correct. If we chose to stay in the single market and the customs union the border could indeed remain unchanged. But things have moved on, they are both now arguing that we should leave the SM and the CU, the very things that would indeed permit the border to continue in the same frictionless and invisible way way it does now.

Whether or not Johnson and Villiers realised what they were talking about in 2016 is questionable. If they did, one wonders why now they are supporting a policy which will make the assurances impossible. If they didn't, what were they doing making the assurances in the first place?