An interesting summary by Sir John Curtice (HERE) about the polling evidence on the second anniversary of the referendum. He is a highly respected figure among pollsters so his thoughts are helpful, even though they are hedged around with various caveats. A couple of things he says are encouraging:
"In the last three months eight readings of how people might vote in a second referendum have been taken, albeit using slightly different approaches to asking the question (see here, here and here). On average (once the Don’t Knows are left to one side) these have been put Leave on 48.5%, Remain on 51.5%. The only (albeit potentially crucial) difference is that it is Remain that now appears to be slightly in the lead, whereas two years ago it was Leave that prevailed in the referendum".
He admits that when the results are this tight nobody really knows what the outcome of another vote would be.
He than explains that the change in attitude to Brexit, is not really driven by changing minds since 7% of both leavers and remainers said they would change their vote in a new referendum, so cancelling each other out. The big change is in the demographics, and in those who didn't vote in 2016 but would now vote to remain by 44% to 19%.
This is perhaps at the lower end of where I thought we might be since I expected many more leavers to accept Brexit was a big mistake. But no, they're holding fast. But what has increased significantly is the number of voters who think (a) the government is handling Brexit badly and (b) we will end up with a bad deal. As professor Curtice puts it:
"But, so far at least, voters have proven remarkably reluctant to change their minds even though many are now doubtful about what Brexit will bring".
Doubt is the first stage in changing your mind isn't it? You begin by having no doubts at all, then things don't appear to happen as expected, doubts start to creep in. Things continue to go from bad to worse, doubt increases further. Finally, your worst fears are confirmed, you change your mind. Many leave voters I suspect are on that journey.
The next six months are crucial. The recent warnings from big business (HERE) will perhaps peel off a few more leavers but it will be a slow process. However, the overriding message for me, and something we shouldn't forget, is that opinion is definitely NOT getting behind Brexit. We should rejoice about that.
