Last night the government finally got the EU (Withdrawal) bill through Parliament. The BBC's journalist Nick Watt said on Newsnight it was a key strategy of the government to use the threat of no deal as a lever in the negotiations. He is well connected so I assume it's true and it also chimes with my own belief that this is indeed Davis' plan - otherwise why put so much effort into blocking attempts to stop you threatening to walk away?
If it is true, the government would do well to listen to the Freight Transport Association (FTA) who (HERE) held a "Keep Britain Trading" conference in London yesterday where the organisation’s President, Leigh Pomlett, said:
“The time for political negotiations on Brexit is fast running out, and those of us responsible for keeping Britain trading need urgent assistance and guidance from government. We are now in a crucial period where businesses (like mine) need to make spending decisions and commit to operating plans for the period when Brexit will be a reality, but we are currently operating “in the dark”.
At the conference, Robin Walker the DEXEU minister played down the risks of a no deal exit and told delegates (HERE), "There will be no breakdown at the border. Businesses on the continent need frictionless trade so solutions will be found. It was in the bloc's interests to strike an agreement". Not surprisingly, there was much scepticism. More or less at the same time Guy Verhofstadt was telling the Exiting the EU Select Committee:
If it is true, the government would do well to listen to the Freight Transport Association (FTA) who (HERE) held a "Keep Britain Trading" conference in London yesterday where the organisation’s President, Leigh Pomlett, said:
“The time for political negotiations on Brexit is fast running out, and those of us responsible for keeping Britain trading need urgent assistance and guidance from government. We are now in a crucial period where businesses (like mine) need to make spending decisions and commit to operating plans for the period when Brexit will be a reality, but we are currently operating “in the dark”.
At the conference, Robin Walker the DEXEU minister played down the risks of a no deal exit and told delegates (HERE), "There will be no breakdown at the border. Businesses on the continent need frictionless trade so solutions will be found. It was in the bloc's interests to strike an agreement". Not surprisingly, there was much scepticism. More or less at the same time Guy Verhofstadt was telling the Exiting the EU Select Committee:
"The difficulty of this negotiation is a little bit the lack of recognition from one side [that's us] that this is a rules-based system and that we can't invent a relationship or partnership that goes against those rules."
Walker seems to believe the EU will be able to change all the rules related to third countries simply to accommodate a former member. It can't even-if-it-wanted-to. One senses after a year of negotiations we still don't get it.
On the same day, The Port of Dover (HERE) warned of "regular" gridlock if we leave without a deal (there will be gridlock even if we leave WITH a deal). The chairman of one of the largest freight forwarders said the government is, "unprepared for the consequences of leaving the customs union and single market". Note he doesn't even say this is without a deal.
He said before the single market was established in 1993, there were 300 customs officers; now we have just 24 in east Kent. Where we had 185 customs clearance agents doing the paperwork, today there are only 17, and only five of them of any real size operating a 24-hours-a-day service,” he said.
"In 1993, there were between 2m and 2.5m entries; post-Brexit, there will be somewhere in excess of 25m, this including Dover and Eurotunnel. It is obvious to everyone that customs clearance will be woefully inadequate.”
Bear in mind that in 1993 we were in the customs union and trade volumes have increased ten-fold. Assuming pro-rata staffing we will need 3000 or so customs officers and close to 2000 customs clearance agents. This is just for East Kent, never mind Hull and other ports serving Ireland. There is apparently no sign of the government recruiting any extra staff.
A train crash is coming.
A train crash is coming.
