Thursday 14 June 2018

THE FOOTHILLS OF MOUNT CHAOS

I was out most of the day yesterday and incommunicado so wasn't able to follow all the events as they happened but even by Brexit standards, it was an extraordinary day - as the BBC report HERE. The ongoing row between the pro and anti Brexit wings of the Conservative party about what Mrs May promised or didn't promise, threatens to fracture the party. She is losing the trust of both sides. But this was only a part of the chaos we are seeing as a result of Brexit.

The SNP walked out of PMQs after Ian Blackford, the leader, was ordered out by the speaker following a row about the UK government carrying out what he claimed was a power grab, and not respecting the Scottish government. He called it a constitutional crisis. In the Labour party six front benchers resigned and 90 Labour MPs (HERE) ignored Jeremy Corbyn instruction to abstain on one of the Lord's amendment.  This was all happening at Westminster.

Outside in the real world, the current head of the CBI Paul Drechsler, said that if we leave the customs union some manufacturing and particularly the car industry risks "extinction". He added, “There’s zero evidence that independent trade deals will provide any economic benefit to the UK that’s material. It’s a myth,” Meanwhile, a former head of the CBI, Digby Jones, was telling Talk Radio (HERE) that compromising with remainers showed the "tyranny" of parliament. That's the same parliament the idiot Brexiteer wants to return power to. He wants us to get out of the customs union and SM to we can negotiate our own trade deals -the ones Mr Drechsler rightly says there is no evidence we will benefit from.

Business has "lost trust" in government, according to The Guardian HERE. So party-focused is the government that it has totally ignored business. The CBI boss' warnings are falling on deaf ears. 

Business is as split over Brexit as the rest of us and this can be seen in a blog post by Dr Richard North, a leaver who is highly critical of the government's approach and has long argued we should join the EEA. He has worked in the EU and is an expert on European regulations, particularly on food issues. He visited yesterday what he calls a "major public company" and addressed the CEO (an enthusiastic leaver) and other board members. He found they had made no preparations whatsoever for Brexit, and had received no advice either from the government or trade associations. Dr North has issued apocalyptic warnings about the impact of Brexit, either in the event of no deal or even with a free trade agreement, but this cut no ice with the company he visited. The attitude was that nothing bad will happen because the government won't let it. They knew nothing about the EU's notices to stakeholders.

I think this might cast some light on the problem. Government ministers listen to business leaders who are totally ignorant but quite relaxed about Brexit while they themselves are thinking that the government is in control and will make sure nothing untoward happens. Ignorance and blind faith abound on both sides. Reality is a negotiating position for the EU and it will never intrude into the fantasy world of Brexit.

And finally, the EU have confirmed that the UK will be blocked from the highly secure military part of Galileo as well as bidding for future work (HERE) thus ending government hopes of remaining part of the project. It looks like we need £5-10 billion to build our own.

Aaron Banks admits to "leading people up the garden path" (HERE) and now says Brexit is getting "tedious". He may "quit politics" (HERE) - we can but hope - although I suspect he may get little in the way of relief if James Kirkup at The Spectator is to be believed. Kirkup thinks Brexit will never end (HERE) because, according to him, it's about negotiating with the EU and this will never actually be finished. There will always be new things to discuss and agree in exactly the same way that our relationship with the USA is constantly changing and evolving.

I do not for a second think this is as bad as it is going to get. Many similar days will follow and much worse too. On our humiliating Brexit journey to Mount Chaos, with 287 days to go, we are still only in the foothills.